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Grain Comments: 11-09-2023

Good morning

Overnight trade has corn down 2-3 cents, wheat down 6-7 cents and soybeans up 3-4 cents. Soy meal is down slightly and soy oil is up 25 points. The Dollar Index is firmer; crude oil futures are slightly higher.

The average trade estimate for today’s WASDE report has corn yield at 173.4 bpa versus 173.0 in October. Corn ending stocks are seen at 2.144 billion bushels versus 2.111 billion last month.

The average trade estimate for today’s WASDE report has soybean yield remaining unchanged at 49.6 bpa. Bean ending stocks are seen at 225 million bushels, up 5 million from October.

The average trade estimate for today’s WASDE report has wheat ending stocks remaining unchanged at 670 million bushels.

Updated CONAB production estimates has soybean production pegged at 162.4 MMTs, up from 162.0 MMTs last month. CONAB trimmed corn production to 119.1 MMTs from 119.4 MMTs in October.

CONAB did mention in its report that dry weather in Mato Grosso will require beans to be replanted but did not offer any indication as to the percentage which will need to be reseeded.

WASDE will not update South American corn and soy production estimates until the December.

Our contacts estimate 10-15 cargoes of soybeans were sold yesterday. Split equally between Gulf and PNW. Total cargos traded over the past few days estimated at 30-35 cargos. Ocean freight from the Gulf firming on the recent export business.

China’s PPI declined 2.6%, slightly smaller than the expected decline of 2.8% and has been in negative territory for 13 straight months. CPI shrank 0.2% year on year in October more than the expected 0.1%.

Brazilian weather remains concerning. Warm/dry conditions will persist across northern Brazil for another 10 days. The persistent wet weather in southern Brazil will continue with 4-10 inches to possibly fall over the next 10 days.

Have a great day

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