Good morning.
Quiet overnight markets to start the last trading day of the week, as the volatility from the rest of the week has at least momentarily subsided. The ag world will have its attention turned to today’s November WASDE release from the USDA, but the report isn’t expected to materially alter the current overall fundamental landscape. Most watched for in the data will be whether any adjustments are made to US yields, while the export outlook for the coming year will garner attention due to the strong pace in the first couple months to start the marketing year; the trade is not expecting much if any changes to South American production estimates. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are down 3-7 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points; oil did make new highs again overnight and has a roughly full-cent trading range as of this writing. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is near unchanged, and the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is also near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 60 points. The NASDAQ is the only one of the three to make new overnight contract highs.
The USDA released baseline projections for corn and soybean supply and demand for the next 10 years on Thursday; the report showed expected corn acreage in the 2025/26 season at 92 million acres and showed expected soybean acreage at 85 million acres. All wheat acres were estimated at 46.0 mil.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of soybean planted area in the coming season in their weekly report on Thursday, now estimating 18.6 mil planted ha’s, compared to their previous estimate of 19.0 mil.
Same group sees planting pace of the soybean crop at 7.9% complete, up from 3.3% last week and up 6.1% from last year. Corn planting is seen at 37.2% complete, up from 34.5% last week and 23.4% last year. Wheat harvest has advanced to 12.1%, up from 7.7% last week.
According to a private Russian ag firm, ProZerno, Russian farmers have only planted around 17.02 mil hectares of winter crops so far, compared to 18.22 mil ha’s as of the same date last year. The source mentioned they expect a smaller winter grain harvest to lead to higher prices later in the season.
Industry participants at a palm oil conference in Indonesia this week said they see global palm oil output possibly rebounding by 2.3 mil tons in the 2024/25 season, after seeing year/year production declines of nearly 1.3 mil tons this year. The increases would be due mostly to production bounce backs in Indonesia and Central America.
Meanwhile, an executive from Cargill’s Chinese unit said on Friday that the Asian nation’s demand for the previously mentioned palm oil was estimated to drop by roughly 30% in the coming season due to cheaper prices of substitutes like soybean oil. The source says this could cause imports of palm oil to drop by more than 45% from the year prior.
According to French crop group FranceAgriMer, roughly 58% of the country’s corn crop has been harvested as of November 4th, up from 38% last week but still well behind the five-year average of 89%. Same group sees soft wheat planting at 62% complete to 77% on average and sees barley planting at 78% complete compared to 87% on average.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 2nd were seen at 767k tons, up nearly 4% from last week. Corn shipments at 297k tons were up 61.4% on the week, and soybean shipments at 462k tons were down 15.1%. STL barge freight was down $10.17 on avg from last week at $23.66/ton.
Following yesterday’s expected quarter-point rate cut from the Fed, investors now see the chance at a subsequent quarter-point rate again in the December meeting at just over 70%. In his comments following yesterday’s decision, Fed Chair Powell also made mention that he had no intentions from stepping aside from his role should Trump request his resignation.
Other financial news to start Friday includes AI-bell cow NVIDIA replacing Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today. Sherwin-Williams also replaced Dow Inc, making these the second and third changes to the index this year, after not seeing any changes since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial average is made up of 30 stocks that include a mix of technology, financial, health care, and consumer sectors.
Heavy snowfall continue to come down over parts of CO/NM on Thursday; 24-hour satellite data as of 6am central time this morning shows totals reaching up to 12+” in a fairly wide area in northeast NM/southwest CO. This system also provided rainfall through northern TX into western OK/KS of 0.1-2″ generally speaking, with a band through central TX receiving a heavier 2-4″.
This system then looks to move north and east through the Midwest beginning today and will provide rainfall to a fairly widespread area into the first part of next week. Totals look to range anywhere from trace amounts to up to an inch generally speaking, with some locally heavier amounts possible. The southeast up into the northeast will also pick up around an inch of rain over the next 3-4 days.
The wet pattern then continues into next week, with week-two forecasts continuing to show a wet bias for most of the country into the back half of November. We continue to mention there is currently no sign of an impending pattern shift through November the 20th. The newly developed trough/ridge pattern remains in place.
There continues to be very few updates for Brazil going into the weekend, while forecast fluctuations remain for Argentina. Satellite data for Thursday showed another good day of rains across most all of Brazil, while Argentina picked up just very light showers in small, localized areas through the central and northern parts of the country; totals were less than a tenth.
Forecast runs this morning for both the week-one and week-two periods show a general lack of rainfall for a broad majority of Argentina, which will be monitored going into next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-08-2024
Good morning.
Quiet overnight markets to start the last trading day of the week, as the volatility from the rest of the week has at least momentarily subsided. The ag world will have its attention turned to today’s November WASDE release from the USDA, but the report isn’t expected to materially alter the current overall fundamental landscape. Most watched for in the data will be whether any adjustments are made to US yields, while the export outlook for the coming year will garner attention due to the strong pace in the first couple months to start the marketing year; the trade is not expecting much if any changes to South American production estimates. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are down 3-7 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points; oil did make new highs again overnight and has a roughly full-cent trading range as of this writing. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is near unchanged, and the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is also near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 60 points. The NASDAQ is the only one of the three to make new overnight contract highs.
The USDA released baseline projections for corn and soybean supply and demand for the next 10 years on Thursday; the report showed expected corn acreage in the 2025/26 season at 92 million acres and showed expected soybean acreage at 85 million acres. All wheat acres were estimated at 46.0 mil.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of soybean planted area in the coming season in their weekly report on Thursday, now estimating 18.6 mil planted ha’s, compared to their previous estimate of 19.0 mil.
Same group sees planting pace of the soybean crop at 7.9% complete, up from 3.3% last week and up 6.1% from last year. Corn planting is seen at 37.2% complete, up from 34.5% last week and 23.4% last year. Wheat harvest has advanced to 12.1%, up from 7.7% last week.
According to a private Russian ag firm, ProZerno, Russian farmers have only planted around 17.02 mil hectares of winter crops so far, compared to 18.22 mil ha’s as of the same date last year. The source mentioned they expect a smaller winter grain harvest to lead to higher prices later in the season.
Industry participants at a palm oil conference in Indonesia this week said they see global palm oil output possibly rebounding by 2.3 mil tons in the 2024/25 season, after seeing year/year production declines of nearly 1.3 mil tons this year. The increases would be due mostly to production bounce backs in Indonesia and Central America.
Meanwhile, an executive from Cargill’s Chinese unit said on Friday that the Asian nation’s demand for the previously mentioned palm oil was estimated to drop by roughly 30% in the coming season due to cheaper prices of substitutes like soybean oil. The source says this could cause imports of palm oil to drop by more than 45% from the year prior.
According to French crop group FranceAgriMer, roughly 58% of the country’s corn crop has been harvested as of November 4th, up from 38% last week but still well behind the five-year average of 89%. Same group sees soft wheat planting at 62% complete to 77% on average and sees barley planting at 78% complete compared to 87% on average.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 2nd were seen at 767k tons, up nearly 4% from last week. Corn shipments at 297k tons were up 61.4% on the week, and soybean shipments at 462k tons were down 15.1%. STL barge freight was down $10.17 on avg from last week at $23.66/ton.
Following yesterday’s expected quarter-point rate cut from the Fed, investors now see the chance at a subsequent quarter-point rate again in the December meeting at just over 70%. In his comments following yesterday’s decision, Fed Chair Powell also made mention that he had no intentions from stepping aside from his role should Trump request his resignation.
Other financial news to start Friday includes AI-bell cow NVIDIA replacing Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today. Sherwin-Williams also replaced Dow Inc, making these the second and third changes to the index this year, after not seeing any changes since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial average is made up of 30 stocks that include a mix of technology, financial, health care, and consumer sectors.
Heavy snowfall continue to come down over parts of CO/NM on Thursday; 24-hour satellite data as of 6am central time this morning shows totals reaching up to 12+” in a fairly wide area in northeast NM/southwest CO. This system also provided rainfall through northern TX into western OK/KS of 0.1-2″ generally speaking, with a band through central TX receiving a heavier 2-4″.
This system then looks to move north and east through the Midwest beginning today and will provide rainfall to a fairly widespread area into the first part of next week. Totals look to range anywhere from trace amounts to up to an inch generally speaking, with some locally heavier amounts possible. The southeast up into the northeast will also pick up around an inch of rain over the next 3-4 days.
The wet pattern then continues into next week, with week-two forecasts continuing to show a wet bias for most of the country into the back half of November. We continue to mention there is currently no sign of an impending pattern shift through November the 20th. The newly developed trough/ridge pattern remains in place.
There continues to be very few updates for Brazil going into the weekend, while forecast fluctuations remain for Argentina. Satellite data for Thursday showed another good day of rains across most all of Brazil, while Argentina picked up just very light showers in small, localized areas through the central and northern parts of the country; totals were less than a tenth.
Forecast runs this morning for both the week-one and week-two periods show a general lack of rainfall for a broad majority of Argentina, which will be monitored going into next week.
Have a great day.
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