Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT have resumed the choppy trade that was seen to end last week early on Monday, as the overall commodity space is rather mixed to start the new week. The US$ index is up around 50 points this morning, which will act to somewhat keep a lid on material goods like grains/metals/oil if it stays that way through the day on Monday. Otherwise, there doesn’t look to be an abundance of fresh ag-specific data since Friday, with a good chunk of the US extending the weekend one more day for the holiday and corn and soybean futures looking to extend last week’s winning streaks to their sixth and seventh days respectively. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are up 2-9 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 13-14 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down around $1.50/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 200 points, and the US$ index is up 50-60 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 100 points. Gold futures are down around $30/oz.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC data showed that as of Tuesday, November 5th, funds were net-long 22,043 contracts of corn (+39,746 on the week), net-short 70,112 contracts of soybeans (+2,114), and net-short 30,781 contracts of Chicago wheat (+391). This is the first time funds have been net-long corn since the week of August 1st last year.
In soy products, funds as of Tuesday were seen net-short 8,131 contracts of soybean meal (-21,028) and were seen net-long 63,706 contracts of soybean oil (+26,178). Funds also flipped sides from net-long to net-short in soybean meal.
According to a weekly report form Brazilin ag consultancy Patria Agronegocios, soybean planting in the country was estimated to have reached 68.4% over the weekend, compared to last year’s pace of 61.3%. IMEA on Friday estimated Mato Grosso at 93.72% complete, compared to 91.8% last year.
Private Ukrainian analyst APK-Inform over the weekend left their estimate of 2024/25 grain production in the country unchanged at 52.5 mmt’s, and also left their export estimate unchanged at 37.3 mmt’s. The export estimate is questionable, as exports in 2022/23 totaled 49.2 mmt’s and exports last year totaled 51 mmt’s; through the first week of November, exports this year are up more than 50% from last year at 15.3 mmt’s.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food price index was seen at an 18-month high last week as unfavorable weather raised production concerns in several parts of the world. The index was up 2% in October, led by a jump in the cost of vegetable oils.
US Federally inspected pork production in the week ending November 9th was seen at 556 mil lbs., down 1.7% from last week. Beef production was seen at 536 mil lbs., up 0.8% from last week. YTD pork production is up 1.5% from last year, and beef production is down 0.5%.
The final results of the House of Representative elections are still awaited as of this writing on Monday, but it is becoming increasingly likely that the Republicans will successfully complete the elusive ‘clean sweep’ of both the White House and Congress.
Front and center on the economic data slate this week is inflation numbers, with fresh CPI data due out on Wednesday, and PPI data out the following day on Thursday; the week then wraps up with retail sales data for the month of October on Friday.
Most of the US east of the Rocky Mountains saw some sort of precipitation over the last 72 hours, with satellite data showing the heaviest totals of 6+” in parts of eastern TX and into LA. The southern Plains/western Corn Belt picked up anywhere from trace amounts to 2″ with the best rains being in parts of KS/OK, while the Ohio River Valley also saw similar precipitation amounts.
On the snowfall side, satellite data shows parts of northern NM and into CO received 12-20″ generally speaking, with some heavier totals likely at higher elevations.
For this week, models are seeing a bit of disagreement on precipitation forecasts; the EU ensemble is trying to bring a tropical system out of the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday which would provide rainfall of 1-3″ for parts of LA/MS/AL/TN, but the GFS does not see the storm making it inland, and sees rainfall in these areas totaling just 0.1-.5″ into the end of the week. Models are in agreement that the Pacific northwest stays wet this week.
Week-two forecasts were mostly unchanged over the weekend, as all of the runs maintain an overall wet bias for most of the central and eastern parts of the country into November 25th. A wetter bias is emerging for the PNW, but as we just mentioned, things will be wet here in the meantime.
Temperature forecasts were similarly unchanged over the weekend in the short term, but did see a bit of adjustment in the 10–15-day period. The GFS is cooler than the EU model, but both are seeing a shift to more below average temps into the end of the month for both halves of the country, as opposed to the warm east/cool west pattern that we’ve been in. This will be monitored going forward this week.
Satellite data for South America over the weekend shows central and northern Brazil saw continued good rainfall, with totals ranging from 0.01″ to 3″ generally speaking, with some locally heavier amounts. Central/southern Argentina saw light rains of 0.01-0.5″, while the rest of the country was mostly dry.
Not a lot of change to the forecast overall though here, as Argentina will be mostly dry this week along with southern Brazil, while north/central Brazil will continue to see good rains. The week two period fills in some moisture for southern Brazil, but otherwise maintains dryness in Argentina.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-11-24
Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT have resumed the choppy trade that was seen to end last week early on Monday, as the overall commodity space is rather mixed to start the new week. The US$ index is up around 50 points this morning, which will act to somewhat keep a lid on material goods like grains/metals/oil if it stays that way through the day on Monday. Otherwise, there doesn’t look to be an abundance of fresh ag-specific data since Friday, with a good chunk of the US extending the weekend one more day for the holiday and corn and soybean futures looking to extend last week’s winning streaks to their sixth and seventh days respectively. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are up 2-9 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 13-14 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down around $1.50/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 200 points, and the US$ index is up 50-60 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 100 points. Gold futures are down around $30/oz.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC data showed that as of Tuesday, November 5th, funds were net-long 22,043 contracts of corn (+39,746 on the week), net-short 70,112 contracts of soybeans (+2,114), and net-short 30,781 contracts of Chicago wheat (+391). This is the first time funds have been net-long corn since the week of August 1st last year.
In soy products, funds as of Tuesday were seen net-short 8,131 contracts of soybean meal (-21,028) and were seen net-long 63,706 contracts of soybean oil (+26,178). Funds also flipped sides from net-long to net-short in soybean meal.
According to a weekly report form Brazilin ag consultancy Patria Agronegocios, soybean planting in the country was estimated to have reached 68.4% over the weekend, compared to last year’s pace of 61.3%. IMEA on Friday estimated Mato Grosso at 93.72% complete, compared to 91.8% last year.
Private Ukrainian analyst APK-Inform over the weekend left their estimate of 2024/25 grain production in the country unchanged at 52.5 mmt’s, and also left their export estimate unchanged at 37.3 mmt’s. The export estimate is questionable, as exports in 2022/23 totaled 49.2 mmt’s and exports last year totaled 51 mmt’s; through the first week of November, exports this year are up more than 50% from last year at 15.3 mmt’s.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food price index was seen at an 18-month high last week as unfavorable weather raised production concerns in several parts of the world. The index was up 2% in October, led by a jump in the cost of vegetable oils.
US Federally inspected pork production in the week ending November 9th was seen at 556 mil lbs., down 1.7% from last week. Beef production was seen at 536 mil lbs., up 0.8% from last week. YTD pork production is up 1.5% from last year, and beef production is down 0.5%.
The final results of the House of Representative elections are still awaited as of this writing on Monday, but it is becoming increasingly likely that the Republicans will successfully complete the elusive ‘clean sweep’ of both the White House and Congress.
Front and center on the economic data slate this week is inflation numbers, with fresh CPI data due out on Wednesday, and PPI data out the following day on Thursday; the week then wraps up with retail sales data for the month of October on Friday.
Most of the US east of the Rocky Mountains saw some sort of precipitation over the last 72 hours, with satellite data showing the heaviest totals of 6+” in parts of eastern TX and into LA. The southern Plains/western Corn Belt picked up anywhere from trace amounts to 2″ with the best rains being in parts of KS/OK, while the Ohio River Valley also saw similar precipitation amounts.
On the snowfall side, satellite data shows parts of northern NM and into CO received 12-20″ generally speaking, with some heavier totals likely at higher elevations.
For this week, models are seeing a bit of disagreement on precipitation forecasts; the EU ensemble is trying to bring a tropical system out of the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday which would provide rainfall of 1-3″ for parts of LA/MS/AL/TN, but the GFS does not see the storm making it inland, and sees rainfall in these areas totaling just 0.1-.5″ into the end of the week. Models are in agreement that the Pacific northwest stays wet this week.
Week-two forecasts were mostly unchanged over the weekend, as all of the runs maintain an overall wet bias for most of the central and eastern parts of the country into November 25th. A wetter bias is emerging for the PNW, but as we just mentioned, things will be wet here in the meantime.
Temperature forecasts were similarly unchanged over the weekend in the short term, but did see a bit of adjustment in the 10–15-day period. The GFS is cooler than the EU model, but both are seeing a shift to more below average temps into the end of the month for both halves of the country, as opposed to the warm east/cool west pattern that we’ve been in. This will be monitored going forward this week.
Satellite data for South America over the weekend shows central and northern Brazil saw continued good rainfall, with totals ranging from 0.01″ to 3″ generally speaking, with some locally heavier amounts. Central/southern Argentina saw light rains of 0.01-0.5″, while the rest of the country was mostly dry.
Not a lot of change to the forecast overall though here, as Argentina will be mostly dry this week along with southern Brazil, while north/central Brazil will continue to see good rains. The week two period fills in some moisture for southern Brazil, but otherwise maintains dryness in Argentina.
Have a great day.
View All News >