Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing mixed trade again this morning at the week’s halfway point, with the grain markets of corn and wheat slightly lower, while the beans are higher and the products are mixed on additional spread activity. With still two more days before the USDA’s Friday data dump, headlines today will again likely have a macro lean, with most all of the focus on the House vote that is expected to re-open the federal government possibly as early as today. President Trump has already given the bill his endorsement, meaning if/when the House approves it, it should be no more than a procedural matter before it is finalized into law. The longest government shutdown in US history appears to be finally coming to an end. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down around 20 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 160 points.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon briefly, but with news this morning otherwise being on the slow side, we’ll circle back on news that China’s state grain buyer COFCO announced earlier this week that its oilseed unit had signed purchase agreements with exporters in Brazil for around 20 MMTs of ag products totaling more than $10 billion that includes soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other goods. There was no timeline given for when the purchases would be made.
Cash traders and analysts in China say that vast stockpiles of soybeans at ports and in state reserves, along with still depressed crush margins, could limit China’s imports of US beans in the short term, noting the economics just don’t make sense with cheaper supplies out of Brazil still available. Said the founder of a Beijing-based consultancy, “State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases. Even with tariff waivers, margins remain negative and Brazilian beans are still cheaper.”
Weekly export data from the EU, which is still incomplete due to ongoing technical issues, shows soft wheat exports out of the bloc as of November 9th at 8.4 MMTs, which compares to 8.7 MMTs through the same period last year. Barely exports are seen at 3.9 MMTs, up 118% from last year, and corn imports are seen at 5.6 MMTs, down 25% from last year.
The French Ag Ministry said in a report on Tuesday that the country’s soft wheat output was now likely to total 33.3 MMTs, which is up marginally from their estimate last month of 33.2 MMTs and if accurate, would be up nearly 30% from the production figure seen last year. The ministry said they see corn production at 13.2 MMTs, which is down from their October estimate of 13.5 MMTs and if accurate, would also be down nearly 10% from last year. Soft wheat harvest in France wrapped up in August, while corn harvest there started in September and is just wrapping up, similar to in the US.
According to a post in Mexico’s Official Gazette, the country on Tuesday implemented a new tariff of 156% on sugar imports due to declining global prices and a risk of oversupply in the domestic market. Mexico is typically not a net-importer of sugar, but the head of one of the country’s main producer lobbies said the new duties effectively eliminate the possibility for imports this year. Mexico produces around 5 MMTs of sugar annually, of which roughly 4 MMTs goes to domestic use, and the rest goes to exports.
The latest world energy outlook from the IEA (International Energy Agency) shows a relatively stark shift in the group’s tone from previous predictions, with members now saying they don’t expect oil demand to peak before 2050 despite an ongoing rapid growth in the renewable fuels sector. The group added global LNG (liquid natural gas) supply would likely expand by around 50% or some 300 billion cubic meters by 2030.
The European model forecast for the Midwest this morning continues to show nothing more than very light precipitation potential through the northern and eastern parts of the area the rest of the week and into the weekend, while also still seeing a return of generally widespread wet conditions up the West Coast later in the day today and through the rest of the week. Beyond the weekend, the model sees a moisture event for the north-central part of the US Monday/Tuesday and then sees moisture expanding through the mid-south and southeast the rest of the week and into the following weekend.
South American forecasts this morning see additional moisture this week for the western third of Brazil and over into Paraguay, but leave the bulk of the growing regions in both Brazil and Argentina on the drier side for several days, before scattered moisture looks to return first to Argentina by the weekend and then into southern Brazil by the middle of next week. The end of the model run today has filled in the dry pocket in east-central Brazil that was seen yesterday, but this area will continue to need monitoring into the back half of the month.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-12-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing mixed trade again this morning at the week’s halfway point, with the grain markets of corn and wheat slightly lower, while the beans are higher and the products are mixed on additional spread activity. With still two more days before the USDA’s Friday data dump, headlines today will again likely have a macro lean, with most all of the focus on the House vote that is expected to re-open the federal government possibly as early as today. President Trump has already given the bill his endorsement, meaning if/when the House approves it, it should be no more than a procedural matter before it is finalized into law. The longest government shutdown in US history appears to be finally coming to an end. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down around 20 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 160 points.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon briefly, but with news this morning otherwise being on the slow side, we’ll circle back on news that China’s state grain buyer COFCO announced earlier this week that its oilseed unit had signed purchase agreements with exporters in Brazil for around 20 MMTs of ag products totaling more than $10 billion that includes soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other goods. There was no timeline given for when the purchases would be made.
Cash traders and analysts in China say that vast stockpiles of soybeans at ports and in state reserves, along with still depressed crush margins, could limit China’s imports of US beans in the short term, noting the economics just don’t make sense with cheaper supplies out of Brazil still available. Said the founder of a Beijing-based consultancy, “State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases. Even with tariff waivers, margins remain negative and Brazilian beans are still cheaper.”
Weekly export data from the EU, which is still incomplete due to ongoing technical issues, shows soft wheat exports out of the bloc as of November 9th at 8.4 MMTs, which compares to 8.7 MMTs through the same period last year. Barely exports are seen at 3.9 MMTs, up 118% from last year, and corn imports are seen at 5.6 MMTs, down 25% from last year.
The French Ag Ministry said in a report on Tuesday that the country’s soft wheat output was now likely to total 33.3 MMTs, which is up marginally from their estimate last month of 33.2 MMTs and if accurate, would be up nearly 30% from the production figure seen last year. The ministry said they see corn production at 13.2 MMTs, which is down from their October estimate of 13.5 MMTs and if accurate, would also be down nearly 10% from last year. Soft wheat harvest in France wrapped up in August, while corn harvest there started in September and is just wrapping up, similar to in the US.
According to a post in Mexico’s Official Gazette, the country on Tuesday implemented a new tariff of 156% on sugar imports due to declining global prices and a risk of oversupply in the domestic market. Mexico is typically not a net-importer of sugar, but the head of one of the country’s main producer lobbies said the new duties effectively eliminate the possibility for imports this year. Mexico produces around 5 MMTs of sugar annually, of which roughly 4 MMTs goes to domestic use, and the rest goes to exports.
The latest world energy outlook from the IEA (International Energy Agency) shows a relatively stark shift in the group’s tone from previous predictions, with members now saying they don’t expect oil demand to peak before 2050 despite an ongoing rapid growth in the renewable fuels sector. The group added global LNG (liquid natural gas) supply would likely expand by around 50% or some 300 billion cubic meters by 2030.
The European model forecast for the Midwest this morning continues to show nothing more than very light precipitation potential through the northern and eastern parts of the area the rest of the week and into the weekend, while also still seeing a return of generally widespread wet conditions up the West Coast later in the day today and through the rest of the week. Beyond the weekend, the model sees a moisture event for the north-central part of the US Monday/Tuesday and then sees moisture expanding through the mid-south and southeast the rest of the week and into the following weekend.
South American forecasts this morning see additional moisture this week for the western third of Brazil and over into Paraguay, but leave the bulk of the growing regions in both Brazil and Argentina on the drier side for several days, before scattered moisture looks to return first to Argentina by the weekend and then into southern Brazil by the middle of next week. The end of the model run today has filled in the dry pocket in east-central Brazil that was seen yesterday, but this area will continue to need monitoring into the back half of the month.
Have a great day.
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