Good morning.
Thursday ag trade is again mixed to start at the CBOT, with soybeans having made new highs for the move overnight but market action otherwise being nearly identical to that seen coming out of the overnight session yesterday morning despite the federal government having officially been brought back to work following passage of a stop-gap funding bill late in the day yesterday. As far as reports and data go, we are confident we’ll see tomorrow’s WASDE update but have little indication this morning as to when any of the other regular reports might be expected back. Our best guess is that it would be unlikely to expect any other sort of data today or tomorrow, but maybe by the end of next week we might start to see some sort of resumption of things like export sales and the weekly commitment of traders report. In any case, the normal resumption of data flow is likely to be a slow process, with there presumptively being several weeks of catch-up still ahead before things get back to normal. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are in the green, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see Friday’s WASDE update showing US corn production at 16.566 bil bu with a national avg yield of 184.0 bu/acre. US ending stocks are seen at 2.168 bil bu, while world stocks are seen at 283.2 MMTs. For soybeans, production is seen at 4.271 mil bu with yield at 53.1 bu/acre; US ending stocks are seen at 306 mil bu, while world stocks are seen at 124.4 MMTs. Wheat stocks in the US are seen at 869 mil bu, while world wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending November 7th, delayed a day this week due the Veteran’s Day Holiday, is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.105-1.114 mil bbls, while ethanol stocks in the week are seen between 22.00-22.90 mil bbls. Of note, though we still aren’t seeing weekly export sales reports anyway, the Tuesday holiday also would’ve pushed this report to Friday morning as opposed to this morning.
CONAB didn’t make any major adjustments in their November production update this morning, with the group seeing soybean production in the 2025/26 season at 177.602 MMTs vs 177.639 MMTs last month, while total corn production was seen at 138.837 MMTs vs 138.604 last month. On planted area, the group put soybean hectares at 49.063 mil vs 49.074 mil previous, while corn area was seen at 22.722 mil ha’s vs 22.688 mil last month.
The Rosario Grain Exchange said on Wednesday that Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop may possibly reach 24.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be bigger than the previous record of 23 MMTs set in the 2021/22 season. The exchange described the current situation as a “mega-campaign” and added that harvest was around 15% complete already. Corn and soybean production estimates were left unchanged at 61 and 47 MMTs respectively.
As India’s marketing year came to a close at the end of October, data for the 2024/25 season shows the country’s palm oil imports in the season at just 7.58 MMTs, which is down nearly 16% from the previous season and is the lowest figure since 2019/20. Meanwhile, data also shows soybean oil imports in the season at 5.47 MMTs, which was a new record and up nearly 60% from the 2023/24 season. Palm oil’s share of total Indian veg oil imports in the season was seen at just 47%, which is record low and down from 56% the year prior.
Staying in the palm oil market, industry officials speaking to Reuters reporters on Wednesday said that production in Malaysia during CY 2025 could possibly surpass 20 MMTs for the first time ever, with the sources citing good weather, an improved labor force, and new, higher yielding plantations as reasons for the improvement. If accurate, the production figure would be up 3.4% from last year and at the highest level since the previous record set in 2015.
Before the government officially reopened last night, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday afternoon that the October CPI and jobs reports would likely never be released. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics neither confirmed nor denied this, leaving the status of those reports up in the air. We would also mention on the developments that the bill signed yesterday only provides full funding to the government through January 30th, meaning we could possibly be staring down another similar episode in another few short months.
Whether or not the above mentioned reports do ever get released could have a pronounced impact on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates the rest of the year, as the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning following the end of the shutdown now showing just a roughly 50-50 chance that rates see another quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s meeting, which is a sharp decline from the nearly 96% chance at such a cut occurring just four weeks ago.
Several news outlets reported on Wednesday, citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that the US was preparing plans to reduce tariffs on several ag goods that the US doesn’t produce significant quantities of, including coffee, bananas, and other tropical fruits as part of the administration’s ongoing efforts to bring down consumer prices. Bessesnt added that an announcement could be made “within days” but gave no further timeline.
It’s been another quiet 24 hours of weather across the Midwest, with the Thursday forecast not expected to deviate much from conditions seen across most of the region the last couple days. Precipitation still looks to return to the whole of the West Coast today and into the end of the week, with the models also still seeing precipitation return to the northeast Saturday night into Sunday. As far as the Corn Belt goes, models still don’t see much in the way of rainfall until Monday/Tuesday next week, when a small system looks to work through a pretty narrow band from the Dakota’s over to the Appalachian Mountains near the KY/WV line.
This morning’s EU model run has continued to keep the bulk of the growing regions in both Argentina and Brazil on the drier side through the weekend and into the middle of next, with precipitation continuing to be seen being confined to the far western parts of Brazil and then over into Paraguay and north into Bolivia. Precipitation is seen expanding back through southern Brazil then early next week, but there continues to be a noticeable hole in the precipitation map through central Brazil into the end of next week, which will continue to need monitoring.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-13-2025
Good morning.
Thursday ag trade is again mixed to start at the CBOT, with soybeans having made new highs for the move overnight but market action otherwise being nearly identical to that seen coming out of the overnight session yesterday morning despite the federal government having officially been brought back to work following passage of a stop-gap funding bill late in the day yesterday. As far as reports and data go, we are confident we’ll see tomorrow’s WASDE update but have little indication this morning as to when any of the other regular reports might be expected back. Our best guess is that it would be unlikely to expect any other sort of data today or tomorrow, but maybe by the end of next week we might start to see some sort of resumption of things like export sales and the weekly commitment of traders report. In any case, the normal resumption of data flow is likely to be a slow process, with there presumptively being several weeks of catch-up still ahead before things get back to normal. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are in the green, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see Friday’s WASDE update showing US corn production at 16.566 bil bu with a national avg yield of 184.0 bu/acre. US ending stocks are seen at 2.168 bil bu, while world stocks are seen at 283.2 MMTs. For soybeans, production is seen at 4.271 mil bu with yield at 53.1 bu/acre; US ending stocks are seen at 306 mil bu, while world stocks are seen at 124.4 MMTs. Wheat stocks in the US are seen at 869 mil bu, while world wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending November 7th, delayed a day this week due the Veteran’s Day Holiday, is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.105-1.114 mil bbls, while ethanol stocks in the week are seen between 22.00-22.90 mil bbls. Of note, though we still aren’t seeing weekly export sales reports anyway, the Tuesday holiday also would’ve pushed this report to Friday morning as opposed to this morning.
CONAB didn’t make any major adjustments in their November production update this morning, with the group seeing soybean production in the 2025/26 season at 177.602 MMTs vs 177.639 MMTs last month, while total corn production was seen at 138.837 MMTs vs 138.604 last month. On planted area, the group put soybean hectares at 49.063 mil vs 49.074 mil previous, while corn area was seen at 22.722 mil ha’s vs 22.688 mil last month.
The Rosario Grain Exchange said on Wednesday that Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop may possibly reach 24.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be bigger than the previous record of 23 MMTs set in the 2021/22 season. The exchange described the current situation as a “mega-campaign” and added that harvest was around 15% complete already. Corn and soybean production estimates were left unchanged at 61 and 47 MMTs respectively.
As India’s marketing year came to a close at the end of October, data for the 2024/25 season shows the country’s palm oil imports in the season at just 7.58 MMTs, which is down nearly 16% from the previous season and is the lowest figure since 2019/20. Meanwhile, data also shows soybean oil imports in the season at 5.47 MMTs, which was a new record and up nearly 60% from the 2023/24 season. Palm oil’s share of total Indian veg oil imports in the season was seen at just 47%, which is record low and down from 56% the year prior.
Staying in the palm oil market, industry officials speaking to Reuters reporters on Wednesday said that production in Malaysia during CY 2025 could possibly surpass 20 MMTs for the first time ever, with the sources citing good weather, an improved labor force, and new, higher yielding plantations as reasons for the improvement. If accurate, the production figure would be up 3.4% from last year and at the highest level since the previous record set in 2015.
Before the government officially reopened last night, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday afternoon that the October CPI and jobs reports would likely never be released. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics neither confirmed nor denied this, leaving the status of those reports up in the air. We would also mention on the developments that the bill signed yesterday only provides full funding to the government through January 30th, meaning we could possibly be staring down another similar episode in another few short months.
Whether or not the above mentioned reports do ever get released could have a pronounced impact on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates the rest of the year, as the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning following the end of the shutdown now showing just a roughly 50-50 chance that rates see another quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s meeting, which is a sharp decline from the nearly 96% chance at such a cut occurring just four weeks ago.
Several news outlets reported on Wednesday, citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that the US was preparing plans to reduce tariffs on several ag goods that the US doesn’t produce significant quantities of, including coffee, bananas, and other tropical fruits as part of the administration’s ongoing efforts to bring down consumer prices. Bessesnt added that an announcement could be made “within days” but gave no further timeline.
It’s been another quiet 24 hours of weather across the Midwest, with the Thursday forecast not expected to deviate much from conditions seen across most of the region the last couple days. Precipitation still looks to return to the whole of the West Coast today and into the end of the week, with the models also still seeing precipitation return to the northeast Saturday night into Sunday. As far as the Corn Belt goes, models still don’t see much in the way of rainfall until Monday/Tuesday next week, when a small system looks to work through a pretty narrow band from the Dakota’s over to the Appalachian Mountains near the KY/WV line.
This morning’s EU model run has continued to keep the bulk of the growing regions in both Argentina and Brazil on the drier side through the weekend and into the middle of next, with precipitation continuing to be seen being confined to the far western parts of Brazil and then over into Paraguay and north into Bolivia. Precipitation is seen expanding back through southern Brazil then early next week, but there continues to be a noticeable hole in the precipitation map through central Brazil into the end of next week, which will continue to need monitoring.
Have a great day.
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