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Grain Comments: 11-14-2023

Good morning:

Grain and soybean markets are lower this morning, as yesterday’s strong rally did not follow through to the overnight trade. Crude oil futures are slightly lower, the Dollar Index is weaker, and Dow futures are little changed from yesterday’s stock market close.

Favorable weather has allowed the U.S. corn and soybean harvest to approach completion. Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress Report estimated that 95% of U.S. soybeans and 88% of corn acreage were harvested as of last Sunday. Ohio and Indiana producers harvested 23% and 14% of their 2023 corn acres respectively last week.

Gulf soybean premiums rose yesterday as the CIF market reacts to the recent Chinese purchases. CIF values were 2 to 4 cents stronger for the November – January slots. Announcements of soybean sales to China or unknown destinations the past week have totaled 3 million metric tons.

President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet tomorrow in San Francisco as the two leaders attempt to repair the deteriorating relationship between the two countries.

The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote later today on a proposal to fund government operations into early 2024. A spending package must be passed by Congress and signed by the President by Friday to avert a partial government shutdown.

AgRural lowered its projection of Brazil’s soybean crop 1.1 MMTs due to the adverse weather at the beginning of the growing season. It estimated that Brazil’s soybeans were 61% planted as of November 9th. A year ago producers had planted an estimated 69% of their soybean crop. The agency said it may make additional cuts to its production projection later this month.

A pattern change next week will bring drier weather to southern Brazil and better rain chances and cooler temperatures for central and northern portions of Brazil. Whether or not the change is more than just temporary will be key to Brazilian production prospects.

On the other hand, weather in Argentina has improved greatly in recent weeks as beneficial rains have fallen across growing regions, enhancing corn and soybean production prospects following last year’s severe drought.

NOPA will release its November soybean crush report tomorrow. Traders expect soyoil stocks at the end of October to be 16.5% less than a year ago even though soyoil production is expected to be 2.5% greater than a year ago.

Have a great day!

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