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Grain Comments: 11.15.23

Grain and soybean markets have turned mixed this morning. Beans were higher earlier in the session, likely attributed to President Biden and Xi meeting today in San Francisco. Nearby meal futures rallied to new contract highs overnight but have since turned slightly negative. Equities continue to push higher as the CPI data from Tuesday supported ideas that the fight against inflation is working. Crude oil is lower, the dollar index is marginally higher and gold is up for the 3rd consecutive day.


Today’s Reports: Energy Information Administration (EIA)


·     The 6-10 day outlook has much-needed showers for C and N Brazil with both the EU and GFS models in fair agreement. Rainfall totals of 1.0-3.0″ are anticipated across the driest regions of C Brazil. In the meantime, another 5 days of record heat and dryness continues to damage crops in the region. Traders are reluctant to aggressively sell beans as the long-range maps revert back to a high pressure blocking ridge that does not allow the seasonal monsoonal rains to materialize.


·     World meal prices remain well supported with Brazilian meal basis now trading in parity with US Gulf offers. Nearby rapeseed meal in the EU traded at a 6-month high on Tuesday. Argentina won’t return as a major world meal exporter until April of next year.


·     President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet today in San Francisco as the two leaders attempt to repair the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. The market will be looking for signs that the two sides are willing to cooperate for the benefit of both countries.


·     The new bean processing plant in Spiritwood, ND (Green Bison) held a ribbon cutting ceremony on Tuesday and plans to fire up the newly built plant over the next two weeks. The facility is a joint venture between ADM and Marathon Petroleum and has a processing capacity of 150,000 bushels of soybeans per day.


·     NOPA will release its November soybean crush report today with traders anticipating near a record 189 mln. bu. of beans crushed in October. Traders expect soyoil stocks at the end of October to be 16.5% less than a year ago even though soyoil production is expected to be 2.5% greater than a year ago.

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