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Grain Comments: 11.16.23

Good morning. Chicago is defensive this morning, dollar slightly firmer at 104.330, crude oil futures down .53 at 76.10, DOW futures down 81 at 34971.


Today’s Reports: Weekly export sales


·     Soybean futures are finding pressure on some improvement in Brazilian weather forecasts moving forward, which is surfacing some profit taking. The lack of announcements in export sales tied to Biden/Xi meeting also lending pressure, but that is probably a big ask at this point.


·     Biden and Xi did agree on restarting communications between the U.S./Chinese militaries and China working to curb fentanyl production – both important topics.


·     Presidential election in Argentina on Sunday highly anticipated by the trade as one candidate is business as usual and the other is in favor of pegging the peso to the dollar and radically changing export taxes.


·     NOPA crush yesterday at 189.77 mln. bu. was best ever for any month. SBM export values are competitive, and soy oil stocks continue to decline.


·     Weather will turn much cooler in the U.S. midsection starting next week, and when coupled with dry weather will put more pressure on the river system regarding water levels and logistics. The dry weather is conducive to fall field work but some worry is in the background regarding lack of soil moisture next spring if dry weather continues through winter.


·     Ukraine reached a deal with global insurers to provide insurance for vessels carrying grain and critical food supplies from its Black Sea ports.


·     Weekly export sales: Corn 71.3 mln. bu.; Soybeans 144.0 mln. bu.; Wheat 6.5 mln. bu. Very good week for soybean sales.

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