Grain Comments: 11-17-2023

Good morning!

Good morning – happy Friday – quite a few of you will have the first weekend off in “forever” as harvest is winding down in many areas. Chicago is defensive in overnight trade but trading ranges are subdued. Dollar .218 lower at 104.015, crude oil futures up .98 at 73.90 after getting clobbered yesterday, DOW futures up 121 at 35139.

Soybean weakness yesterday was tied to better precipitation chances in Brazil in the near term, but extended forecasts remain on the dry side for central/northern Brazil in December. Wet weather for southern Brazil remains in the forecast. This issue is pushing bean plantings back, which is expected to delay bean harvest a bit with less than normal amounts of beans available for export in January. This may also lower corn acres planted as full season beans are planted. Something to watch regarding Brazil corn export projections.

Argentine weather is more benign but they have their own issues with lack of soybeans to grind for meal and oil.

Markets are highly anticipating Argentine presidential election Sunday. Current president if elected will stay on the economic path. The challenger wants to get rid of their Central Bank and drop export taxes. Farmers still have old crop soybeans to sell so the market is anxious to see if these hit the market after the election.

5 day forecast brings much needed rain to the U.S. southeast but may hamper completion of harvest in parts of the eastern cornbelt. 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast shows below normal temps and precip for much of the U.S. The party is apparently over regarding mild temperatures.

Active day of trade is expected even if there is no “new” news this morning. S. American weather, economic news, and Argentine election Sunday should be enough to keep things interesting. Have a great day.

Have a great day.