Good morning.
Markets are again quiet this morning to start what is expected to be a relatively busy data day at the CBOT on Thursday. Conab kicked things off early with fresh updates to Brazilian corn and soybean production estimates, but did not offer anything out of the ordinary, and there was little to no market reaction when the numbers were released at 6am central time. Otherwise, wheat futures continue to work lower following yesterday’s sell-off and look to have the contract lows in sight, while bean oil is recovering a bit following the lashings received the last couple sessions; and the $ index has continued its trek higher again this morning, making new contract highs for now the fourth consecutive session. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 125 points, and the US$ index is up 35-40 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold futures are down $25-30/oz and are nearly $20/oz off their overnight lows.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production for the week ending November 8th, delayed a day this week for the Monday holiday, is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.065-1.106 mil bbls, and stocks are seen between 21.70-22.32 mil bbls.
Conab this morning made just minor adjustments to corn and soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season; soybean production was raised to 166.143 mmt’s from 166.054 last month, and total corn production was similarly slightly raised to 119.814 mmt’s from 119.739 last month. There were no adjustments made to safrinha (second crop) corn production.
Soybean planted area was adjusted marginally higher from last month to 47.357 mil hectares, and corn planted area was also adjusted marginally higher from last month to 21.011 mil hectares.
The Rosario Grains Exchange late on Wednesday lowered their estimate of Argentina’s 2024/25 wheat crop by 0.7 mmt’s to 18.8 mmt’s, citing yield damage that was done before the rains arrived in October; this estimate though remains above the USDA’s figure of 17.5 mmt’s.
Same group raised their soybean production estimate to 53-53.5 mmt’s, up from 52-53 last month on a 1.1% increase in planted area, and also lowered their corn production estimate to 50-51 mmt’s vs 51-52 mmt’s last month on a similar 1% adjustment lower in planted area. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange will be out with their weekly estimates later this afternoon/evening.
French ag consultancy FranceAgriMer slightly lowered their French soft-wheat export estimate on Wednesday to 9.9 mmt’s, mostly on a 2.5% reduction in sales outside the EU; the current total estimate is now down more than 40% from last year, while non-EU exports are seen down more than 60%.
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, speaking at an event Wednesday in Mexico City, said the country had received preliminary results of an arbitration panel that investigated Mexico’s ban on genetically modified corn imports, and that those results would likely not be in Mexico’s favor when the final results are disclosed sometime in December.
Equity markets on Thursday will have their attention on monthly PPI data due out this morning, and also weekly jobless data, just a day after inflation unexpectedly ticked up for the first time since Spring. The PPI report is expected to show producer prices in October ticking up by 0.2%, after being unchanged in September.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday, in a monthly report, said global oil markets will face a surplus of more than one million bbls/day next year on mostly continued poor demand out of China. The group sees oil consumption growth in the Asian country this year at just 10% of the growth rate seen in 2023, while total global demand growth is seen at just 920k bbls/day, less than half of 2023’s rate.
Current US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump had what was described as a ‘cordial’ meeting at the White House for more than two hours on Wednesday, where a smooth transition of power was discussed, as well as Ukraine and the Middle East amongst other things.
Newswires on Wednesday also reported that Biden was scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this Saturday on the sidelines of an economic summit in Peru, in what is likely to be the two’s final meeting before Biden leaves office.
Rains across the southeast and up through the mid-south were generally better than expected over the last 24 hours according to satellite data; totals of 1-2″ were seen through broad areas of MS/AL and up through TN and KY, while a broader area stretching west to NE/IA saw lighter totals of 0.01-0.5″. The PNW also saw rains of 0.1-1.5″.
Forecasts show rains from yesterday’s system continuing to impact the central East Coast through the day on Thursday before exiting into the Atlantic Thursday night/Friday morning. Light rains then to look fall in the northwest through the weekend, while the rest of the country will be mostly dry for a few days.
The second system that has had all our attention this week then looks to start producing precipitation Sunday night/Monday morning in the southwest and will work its way north and east through the Plains on Monday, reaching the northern part of the country by middle of the day on Tuesday.
Rainfall totals across most all of the country from this system are seen in a range of 0.5-1.5″ generally speaking and will stretch from NM all the way to MN and into Canada. As we’ve mentioned, snowfall is also likely from this system, with GFS this morning advertising 1-2″ for parts of MN/WI and the upper Midwest. Models are having all kinds of fits on exact locations/amounts of snowfall, with each run being quite different than the one before it.
Beyond this system, 10–15-day guidance continues to advertise a cooler/dryer pattern emerging for most all of the country, which will be a significant change from the pattern that has been seen through most of Fall.
Rinse and repeat in South America for rainfall over the last 24 hours; satellite data showed another dry day across Argentina and southern Brazil, while northern/central Brazil saw continued good rains of 0.01-1″ generally, with some locally heavier amounts.
Forecasts remain mostly unchanged here, as Argentina will see a few more days of dryness before rains return in the 5-day period, and Brazil continues to be well-watered in all areas but the far south over the next 10-15 days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-14-2024
Good morning.
Markets are again quiet this morning to start what is expected to be a relatively busy data day at the CBOT on Thursday. Conab kicked things off early with fresh updates to Brazilian corn and soybean production estimates, but did not offer anything out of the ordinary, and there was little to no market reaction when the numbers were released at 6am central time. Otherwise, wheat futures continue to work lower following yesterday’s sell-off and look to have the contract lows in sight, while bean oil is recovering a bit following the lashings received the last couple sessions; and the $ index has continued its trek higher again this morning, making new contract highs for now the fourth consecutive session. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 125 points, and the US$ index is up 35-40 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold futures are down $25-30/oz and are nearly $20/oz off their overnight lows.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production for the week ending November 8th, delayed a day this week for the Monday holiday, is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.065-1.106 mil bbls, and stocks are seen between 21.70-22.32 mil bbls.
Conab this morning made just minor adjustments to corn and soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season; soybean production was raised to 166.143 mmt’s from 166.054 last month, and total corn production was similarly slightly raised to 119.814 mmt’s from 119.739 last month. There were no adjustments made to safrinha (second crop) corn production.
Soybean planted area was adjusted marginally higher from last month to 47.357 mil hectares, and corn planted area was also adjusted marginally higher from last month to 21.011 mil hectares.
The Rosario Grains Exchange late on Wednesday lowered their estimate of Argentina’s 2024/25 wheat crop by 0.7 mmt’s to 18.8 mmt’s, citing yield damage that was done before the rains arrived in October; this estimate though remains above the USDA’s figure of 17.5 mmt’s.
Same group raised their soybean production estimate to 53-53.5 mmt’s, up from 52-53 last month on a 1.1% increase in planted area, and also lowered their corn production estimate to 50-51 mmt’s vs 51-52 mmt’s last month on a similar 1% adjustment lower in planted area. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange will be out with their weekly estimates later this afternoon/evening.
French ag consultancy FranceAgriMer slightly lowered their French soft-wheat export estimate on Wednesday to 9.9 mmt’s, mostly on a 2.5% reduction in sales outside the EU; the current total estimate is now down more than 40% from last year, while non-EU exports are seen down more than 60%.
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, speaking at an event Wednesday in Mexico City, said the country had received preliminary results of an arbitration panel that investigated Mexico’s ban on genetically modified corn imports, and that those results would likely not be in Mexico’s favor when the final results are disclosed sometime in December.
Equity markets on Thursday will have their attention on monthly PPI data due out this morning, and also weekly jobless data, just a day after inflation unexpectedly ticked up for the first time since Spring. The PPI report is expected to show producer prices in October ticking up by 0.2%, after being unchanged in September.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday, in a monthly report, said global oil markets will face a surplus of more than one million bbls/day next year on mostly continued poor demand out of China. The group sees oil consumption growth in the Asian country this year at just 10% of the growth rate seen in 2023, while total global demand growth is seen at just 920k bbls/day, less than half of 2023’s rate.
Current US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump had what was described as a ‘cordial’ meeting at the White House for more than two hours on Wednesday, where a smooth transition of power was discussed, as well as Ukraine and the Middle East amongst other things.
Newswires on Wednesday also reported that Biden was scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this Saturday on the sidelines of an economic summit in Peru, in what is likely to be the two’s final meeting before Biden leaves office.
Rains across the southeast and up through the mid-south were generally better than expected over the last 24 hours according to satellite data; totals of 1-2″ were seen through broad areas of MS/AL and up through TN and KY, while a broader area stretching west to NE/IA saw lighter totals of 0.01-0.5″. The PNW also saw rains of 0.1-1.5″.
Forecasts show rains from yesterday’s system continuing to impact the central East Coast through the day on Thursday before exiting into the Atlantic Thursday night/Friday morning. Light rains then to look fall in the northwest through the weekend, while the rest of the country will be mostly dry for a few days.
The second system that has had all our attention this week then looks to start producing precipitation Sunday night/Monday morning in the southwest and will work its way north and east through the Plains on Monday, reaching the northern part of the country by middle of the day on Tuesday.
Rainfall totals across most all of the country from this system are seen in a range of 0.5-1.5″ generally speaking and will stretch from NM all the way to MN and into Canada. As we’ve mentioned, snowfall is also likely from this system, with GFS this morning advertising 1-2″ for parts of MN/WI and the upper Midwest. Models are having all kinds of fits on exact locations/amounts of snowfall, with each run being quite different than the one before it.
Beyond this system, 10–15-day guidance continues to advertise a cooler/dryer pattern emerging for most all of the country, which will be a significant change from the pattern that has been seen through most of Fall.
Rinse and repeat in South America for rainfall over the last 24 hours; satellite data showed another dry day across Argentina and southern Brazil, while northern/central Brazil saw continued good rains of 0.01-1″ generally, with some locally heavier amounts.
Forecasts remain mostly unchanged here, as Argentina will see a few more days of dryness before rains return in the 5-day period, and Brazil continues to be well-watered in all areas but the far south over the next 10-15 days.
Have a great day.
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