Good morning.
Grain markets are quietly mixed/higher to start the last trading day of the week, while the soy complex is again being led to the upside by the soybean oil market. Malaysian palm oil prices were up more than 2% to end the week on further production concerns and clawed back a good portion of the week’s losses, which led bean oil to trade higher as well. As we’ve mentioned all week, political spill-over and policy talks from the Trump Administration look to be the primary drivers of flat price in the short-term, while continued large crop prospects in South America hang over the market and limit the upside. Corn futures this morning are trading a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 7-9 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is trading 1.60-1.70 higher, and is some 20-30 points off the highs. Outside markets are lower, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 160 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points. The S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 150 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending November 7th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 1.25-2.60 mmt’s, soybean sales in a range of 1.00-2.20 mmt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 250k-550k mt’s. 2025/26 corn and soybean sales are estimated between 0-100k mt’s.
NOPA will release soybean crush data for the month of October at 11am central time this morning; the report is expected to show soybean crush at a record 196.843 mil bu’s, while soybean oil stocks as of October 31st are seen at 1.090 bil lbs.
Sources in Australia see the country’s wheat harvest potentially being around 1 mmt higher than current estimates, as early harvest yields have been better than expected. Analysts had made production downgrades following frosts in September, but early indications are that the frosts did not do as much damage as originally thought.
European Parliament officially approved the 12-month postponement of the landmark deforestation bill that was set to take effect at the beginning of 2025. There were also 8 amendments to the original text that were approved by Parliament.
Speaking Thursday in Dallas, TX, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that current strength in the economy was giving the Fed no reason to be in a hurry for further rate cuts, and that further decisions the rest of this year would be ‘approached carefully.’ The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 62% chance at a December rate cut.
The latest Trump cabinet appointments include former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard to be intelligence chief, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum to be interior secretary, and Robert F Kennedy Jr to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
Weather forecasts overnight pushed the snow chances in next week’s system further to the north, mostly keeping snowfall contained to Canada. Northern ND and MN also see chances into the end of next week, but totals are significantly less than were seen yesterday. Rainfall from this system through the central part of the country is still seen in a range of 0.5-1.5″ generally speaking.
Rainfall on Thursday was mostly limited to the mid-Atlantic and areas along the East Coast; totals ranged from trace amounts to up to 1.5″ and were seen through parts of the Carolina’s and into VA/WV.
Light/scattered rains will be seen in the west/northwest through the coming weekend, but otherwise most of the country will be dry until the system starts up out of the southwest Sunday night/Monday morning. High temps will be in the upper 40’s/lower 50’s in the north, and the upper 50’s/lower 60’s in the south.
Week-two forecasts continue to offer a drier bias across most all areas besides the PNW. Models remain in good agreement on a coming pattern shift beyond next week, which is raising confidence.
Satellite data for South America showed another dry day for Argentina and Southern Brazil on Thursday, with totals in central and northern Brazil ranging from trace amounts to 1-2″.
Forecasts overnight turned significantly wetter for all of Argentina in the week-two period, but confidence is not great due to the amount of fluctuation that has gone on all week. This will be monitored through the weekend and into next week. There continues to be very little forecast change for north/central Brazil.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-15-2024
Good morning.
Grain markets are quietly mixed/higher to start the last trading day of the week, while the soy complex is again being led to the upside by the soybean oil market. Malaysian palm oil prices were up more than 2% to end the week on further production concerns and clawed back a good portion of the week’s losses, which led bean oil to trade higher as well. As we’ve mentioned all week, political spill-over and policy talks from the Trump Administration look to be the primary drivers of flat price in the short-term, while continued large crop prospects in South America hang over the market and limit the upside. Corn futures this morning are trading a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 7-9 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is trading 1.60-1.70 higher, and is some 20-30 points off the highs. Outside markets are lower, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 160 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points. The S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 150 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending November 7th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 1.25-2.60 mmt’s, soybean sales in a range of 1.00-2.20 mmt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 250k-550k mt’s. 2025/26 corn and soybean sales are estimated between 0-100k mt’s.
NOPA will release soybean crush data for the month of October at 11am central time this morning; the report is expected to show soybean crush at a record 196.843 mil bu’s, while soybean oil stocks as of October 31st are seen at 1.090 bil lbs.
Sources in Australia see the country’s wheat harvest potentially being around 1 mmt higher than current estimates, as early harvest yields have been better than expected. Analysts had made production downgrades following frosts in September, but early indications are that the frosts did not do as much damage as originally thought.
European Parliament officially approved the 12-month postponement of the landmark deforestation bill that was set to take effect at the beginning of 2025. There were also 8 amendments to the original text that were approved by Parliament.
Speaking Thursday in Dallas, TX, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that current strength in the economy was giving the Fed no reason to be in a hurry for further rate cuts, and that further decisions the rest of this year would be ‘approached carefully.’ The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 62% chance at a December rate cut.
The latest Trump cabinet appointments include former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard to be intelligence chief, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum to be interior secretary, and Robert F Kennedy Jr to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
Weather forecasts overnight pushed the snow chances in next week’s system further to the north, mostly keeping snowfall contained to Canada. Northern ND and MN also see chances into the end of next week, but totals are significantly less than were seen yesterday. Rainfall from this system through the central part of the country is still seen in a range of 0.5-1.5″ generally speaking.
Rainfall on Thursday was mostly limited to the mid-Atlantic and areas along the East Coast; totals ranged from trace amounts to up to 1.5″ and were seen through parts of the Carolina’s and into VA/WV.
Light/scattered rains will be seen in the west/northwest through the coming weekend, but otherwise most of the country will be dry until the system starts up out of the southwest Sunday night/Monday morning. High temps will be in the upper 40’s/lower 50’s in the north, and the upper 50’s/lower 60’s in the south.
Week-two forecasts continue to offer a drier bias across most all areas besides the PNW. Models remain in good agreement on a coming pattern shift beyond next week, which is raising confidence.
Satellite data for South America showed another dry day for Argentina and Southern Brazil on Thursday, with totals in central and northern Brazil ranging from trace amounts to 1-2″.
Forecasts overnight turned significantly wetter for all of Argentina in the week-two period, but confidence is not great due to the amount of fluctuation that has gone on all week. This will be monitored through the weekend and into next week. There continues to be very little forecast change for north/central Brazil.
Have a great day.
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