Good morning.
Mixed markets have been seen in the overnight trading session to start the new week with wheat higher, soybeans lower, and corn near unchanged in the middle. Market themes for this week look to be similar to last, with US politics and weather in South America being interest points 1A and 1B likely into the end of the calendar year. From a flat price standpoint, upside objectives stand at 4.34 3/4 on corn and 10.44 on soybeans, which are levels the bull camp hopes can be achieved sooner than later. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are down 8-9 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged, and soybean oil is down 70-80 points. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 25 points. Gold is up $25-30/oz.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC report for the week ending November 12th showed a massive week of fund buying in corn futures; funds are now seen net-long 109,989 contracts of corn (+87,947), net-short 54,536 contracts of soybeans (+15,577), and net-short 45,307 contracts of Chicago wheat (-14,526). This was the largest week of fund buying in corn since May.
In soy products, managed money traders were buyers of another 11,438 contracts of soybean oil (net-long 75,144) and were sellers of 19,500 contracts of soybean meal (net-short 27,631).
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week pegged corn planting in the country at 38.6% complete, which remains ahead of both average and last year; soybean planting was estimated at 20.1%, which is slightly ahead of last year but behind the 5-year average.
Same group shows corn condition ratings at 90% rated either fair or good/excellent. 96% of the country’s wheat crop was rated in the same condition, while planting advanced to 89.8% complete, which like corn, is ahead of both average and last year.
Also out end of last week was NOPA soybean crush data, which showed a new monthly soybean crush record of 199.959 mil bu’s in the month of October; this was up nearly 13% from September’s figure, and up more than 5% from October of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of October 31st were seen at 1.069 bil lbs.
The group noted that the crush number could’ve been larger, as a processing plant in Des Moines, IA was down a portion of the month for maintenance. Also of note was that the figure did include data from a new facility in Volga, SD, while two additional facilities are expected to be included in reports by the end of the year.
Federally inspected beef production in the US for the week ending November 16th was seen at 526 mil lbs., down 2% from last week; pork production was seen at 563 mil lbs., up 1.3% on the week. YTD beef production is down 0.5% from last year, and pork production is up 1.4%.
World leaders are meeting for the G20 Summit in Rio de Jannero, Brazil this week, where discussions will cover trade, security and climate change among other topics. The real underlying theme, however, will likely be what Trump’s second presidency might look like over the next four years.
Tensions in Ukraine ratcheted up again over the weekend, as one of the largest missile/drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure was followed by an announcement that current US President Joe Biden had authorized Ukraine’s forces to use US weapons to strike targets inside of Russia.
Weather conditions across the US over the weekend were mostly dry across the northern part of the country and up the East Coast, while the southern Plains and into the mid-south saw rainfall ranging from 0.1-2.0″ generally speaking, with the heaviest totals seen in the TX panhandle.
Forecasts for this week have shifted any potential snowfall from the coming system mostly into Canada and parts of far northern ND/MN, with precipitation expected to stay as rainfall through most of the central US and into the upper Midwest. Rainfall totals this week look to range from 0.5-1.5″, and will be seen from TX/OK up through the Midwest and into MN/WI/MI.
Week-two forecasts shifted back wetter over the weekend, with both the EU and GFS ensembles in good agreement on average to above average precipitation chances for most all of the country besides where rains are slated to fall this week into the first of December.
On the temp side, highs in the upper 50’s/lower 60’s look to remain in place for a couple more days to start the week in the east but will drop off into the 40’s by the back half of the week and into next weekend. Ridging allows the west/southwest to see more warmer weather.
Weekend rains across Argentina were better than expected according to satellite data, with 72-hour precipitation maps this morning showing 0.1-1.5″ of rainfall through both northern and southern growing areas, with just a small area in the central part of the country being short-changed. Similar totals were seen throughout central and northern Brazil, while southern Brazil saw only light/scattered precipitation.
Week-one precipitation maps show good rain chances for northern Argentina/southern Brazil early in the period, while central and southern Argentina will hold in a dry pattern. Week-two maps then show good rains for nearly all of these same areas, while central/northern Brazil is actually seen shifting a touch to the dryer side, which will be a welcome development following weeks of near-daily rainfall in places. This week-two forecast shift will be monitored this week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-18-2024
Good morning.
Mixed markets have been seen in the overnight trading session to start the new week with wheat higher, soybeans lower, and corn near unchanged in the middle. Market themes for this week look to be similar to last, with US politics and weather in South America being interest points 1A and 1B likely into the end of the calendar year. From a flat price standpoint, upside objectives stand at 4.34 3/4 on corn and 10.44 on soybeans, which are levels the bull camp hopes can be achieved sooner than later. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are down 8-9 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged, and soybean oil is down 70-80 points. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 25 points. Gold is up $25-30/oz.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC report for the week ending November 12th showed a massive week of fund buying in corn futures; funds are now seen net-long 109,989 contracts of corn (+87,947), net-short 54,536 contracts of soybeans (+15,577), and net-short 45,307 contracts of Chicago wheat (-14,526). This was the largest week of fund buying in corn since May.
In soy products, managed money traders were buyers of another 11,438 contracts of soybean oil (net-long 75,144) and were sellers of 19,500 contracts of soybean meal (net-short 27,631).
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week pegged corn planting in the country at 38.6% complete, which remains ahead of both average and last year; soybean planting was estimated at 20.1%, which is slightly ahead of last year but behind the 5-year average.
Same group shows corn condition ratings at 90% rated either fair or good/excellent. 96% of the country’s wheat crop was rated in the same condition, while planting advanced to 89.8% complete, which like corn, is ahead of both average and last year.
Also out end of last week was NOPA soybean crush data, which showed a new monthly soybean crush record of 199.959 mil bu’s in the month of October; this was up nearly 13% from September’s figure, and up more than 5% from October of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of October 31st were seen at 1.069 bil lbs.
The group noted that the crush number could’ve been larger, as a processing plant in Des Moines, IA was down a portion of the month for maintenance. Also of note was that the figure did include data from a new facility in Volga, SD, while two additional facilities are expected to be included in reports by the end of the year.
Federally inspected beef production in the US for the week ending November 16th was seen at 526 mil lbs., down 2% from last week; pork production was seen at 563 mil lbs., up 1.3% on the week. YTD beef production is down 0.5% from last year, and pork production is up 1.4%.
World leaders are meeting for the G20 Summit in Rio de Jannero, Brazil this week, where discussions will cover trade, security and climate change among other topics. The real underlying theme, however, will likely be what Trump’s second presidency might look like over the next four years.
Tensions in Ukraine ratcheted up again over the weekend, as one of the largest missile/drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure was followed by an announcement that current US President Joe Biden had authorized Ukraine’s forces to use US weapons to strike targets inside of Russia.
Weather conditions across the US over the weekend were mostly dry across the northern part of the country and up the East Coast, while the southern Plains and into the mid-south saw rainfall ranging from 0.1-2.0″ generally speaking, with the heaviest totals seen in the TX panhandle.
Forecasts for this week have shifted any potential snowfall from the coming system mostly into Canada and parts of far northern ND/MN, with precipitation expected to stay as rainfall through most of the central US and into the upper Midwest. Rainfall totals this week look to range from 0.5-1.5″, and will be seen from TX/OK up through the Midwest and into MN/WI/MI.
Week-two forecasts shifted back wetter over the weekend, with both the EU and GFS ensembles in good agreement on average to above average precipitation chances for most all of the country besides where rains are slated to fall this week into the first of December.
On the temp side, highs in the upper 50’s/lower 60’s look to remain in place for a couple more days to start the week in the east but will drop off into the 40’s by the back half of the week and into next weekend. Ridging allows the west/southwest to see more warmer weather.
Weekend rains across Argentina were better than expected according to satellite data, with 72-hour precipitation maps this morning showing 0.1-1.5″ of rainfall through both northern and southern growing areas, with just a small area in the central part of the country being short-changed. Similar totals were seen throughout central and northern Brazil, while southern Brazil saw only light/scattered precipitation.
Week-one precipitation maps show good rain chances for northern Argentina/southern Brazil early in the period, while central and southern Argentina will hold in a dry pattern. Week-two maps then show good rains for nearly all of these same areas, while central/northern Brazil is actually seen shifting a touch to the dryer side, which will be a welcome development following weeks of near-daily rainfall in places. This week-two forecast shift will be monitored this week.
Have a great day.
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