Good morning.
More choppy trade overnight in Chicago to start Tuesday, as the feed grain markets are slightly higher and following through on yesterday’s strong closes, while soybean and soybean oil futures are slightly lower. The $ index is also trading higher again this morning after two days of lower trade, which if carried through the day, will likely keep a cap on the topside of the corn and bean markets. Otherwise, policy and Southern hemisphere crop prospects continue to be the main drivers of flat price into the end of the calendar year. Corn futures this morning are unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are 2-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-15 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 210 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points; gold futures are up another $25-30/oz.
Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed winter wheat planting as of Sunday, November 17th at 94% complete, which is 2% behind the five-year average of 96%. Emergence was seen matching the five-year average at 84%, while conditions in the g/ex category improved 5% from last week to 49%. As a reminder, weekly corn and soybean updates will resume with planting progress in the spring.
At the state level, biggest improvements in the g/ex category were seen in Texas (+14%), Colorado (+11%), Oklahoma (+9%), and Montana (+8%). Oregon declined by 7%, while Nebraska, Ohio, and North Carolina all declined by 6%.
According to consultancy AgRural, soybean planting in Brazil reached 80% as of last Thursday; this compares to 67% last week and 68% as of November 14th last year. Same group sees first crop corn planting at 86% complete in the center/south, compared to 72% last week and 80% last year.
In Canada, private nonprofit group Cereals Canada said they see the country’s wheat crop in the coming season reaching 34.3 mmt’s, which would be up 4% from last year and up 8% from the five-year average. Exports are seen at 25.4 mmt’s, which would rank third in the world for the second consecutive year.
Ukraine’s ag minister on Monday said that an expected increase in wheat planted area of 500k hectares could increase production by up to 3 mmt’s in the coming season to 25 mmt’s. He also mentioned he expects roughly 500k hectares to be shifted from soybeans to corn due to overproduction of soybeans in the current season, which led to lower prices.
Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Favaro said on Monday that Brazil and China would be announcing new agreements in ag trade on Wednesday; the latest details show the agreements will potentially cover fruit, beef, and pork, and will also include an updated list of meatpackers that are approved to export to China.
After getting US approval to launch strikes inside of Russia using US-supplied weapons, Ukraine did just that on Tuesday, striking a border town with a US ATACMS missile. Russian President Putin, in response, signed a new nuclear doctrine that gave him the ability to launch nuclear weapons in response to a ‘massive conventional attack’ on its soil.
Satellite data shows rainfall across the US on Monday was generally lighter than expected, but reached areas further to the west than the forecasts had predicted; heaviest rains of up to 2″ were seen near the Delta in parts of LA and MS, while a broader 0.5-1.5″ was seen from W OK/SW KS, up into N MN/WI. The far eastern Corn Belt was short-changed, with areas east of Indiana generally remaining mostly dry.
Forecast for the rest of this week shows light/scattered rains continuing to impact the east/northeast as this current system spins out, while the central/west-central part of the country looks to dry out a bit going into the weekend. The PNW also looks to stay wet at least into the first part of next week.
Week-two guidance has seen some model divergence the past 24 hours; the CPC’s outlook keeps all of the country besides the far south/southwest in a wetter than normal bias, the EU and GFS ensembles see wet conditions for the southeast and a more average precipitation outlook for central regions, and the EU AI model is wet in the southwest and across the south, while being dry across the northern tier of the country.
Of note on week-two, all four models see a drier bias for the PNW which would be a noted shift from the recent pattern here. Over the last 30 days, places in this corner of the country have seen 150-250% of normal rainfall in some cases.
Temperatures continue to trend cooler into the end of the month, with 10–15-day guidance from both the EU and the GFS models showing well-below average temps for the first week of December.
Snowfall predictions continue to fluctuate, with the GFS this morning showing light chances in the northeast/New England area into the end of this week, though most measurable snowfall remains confined to Canada. This will need monitoring into the end of the month.
Satellite data in South America showed another decent day of rains in northern Argentina on Monday, while the southern part of the country was again dry. Best rains were seen across parts of Bolivia and stretching into MGDS in Brazil, where totals reached up to 2.5″ in some places. The rest of northern/central Brazil saw just light/scattered showers.
Week-two guidance continues to show much improved rainfall chances for northern/central Argentina into the first days of December, while these rains also stretch into southern Brazil. Eastern/east-central Brazil sees a drier bias in this period, while western/northern Brazil continues to see normal to above normal rains. There remains little in the way of threats in the current forecast.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-19-2024
Good morning.
More choppy trade overnight in Chicago to start Tuesday, as the feed grain markets are slightly higher and following through on yesterday’s strong closes, while soybean and soybean oil futures are slightly lower. The $ index is also trading higher again this morning after two days of lower trade, which if carried through the day, will likely keep a cap on the topside of the corn and bean markets. Otherwise, policy and Southern hemisphere crop prospects continue to be the main drivers of flat price into the end of the calendar year. Corn futures this morning are unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are 2-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-15 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 210 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points; gold futures are up another $25-30/oz.
Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed winter wheat planting as of Sunday, November 17th at 94% complete, which is 2% behind the five-year average of 96%. Emergence was seen matching the five-year average at 84%, while conditions in the g/ex category improved 5% from last week to 49%. As a reminder, weekly corn and soybean updates will resume with planting progress in the spring.
At the state level, biggest improvements in the g/ex category were seen in Texas (+14%), Colorado (+11%), Oklahoma (+9%), and Montana (+8%). Oregon declined by 7%, while Nebraska, Ohio, and North Carolina all declined by 6%.
According to consultancy AgRural, soybean planting in Brazil reached 80% as of last Thursday; this compares to 67% last week and 68% as of November 14th last year. Same group sees first crop corn planting at 86% complete in the center/south, compared to 72% last week and 80% last year.
In Canada, private nonprofit group Cereals Canada said they see the country’s wheat crop in the coming season reaching 34.3 mmt’s, which would be up 4% from last year and up 8% from the five-year average. Exports are seen at 25.4 mmt’s, which would rank third in the world for the second consecutive year.
Ukraine’s ag minister on Monday said that an expected increase in wheat planted area of 500k hectares could increase production by up to 3 mmt’s in the coming season to 25 mmt’s. He also mentioned he expects roughly 500k hectares to be shifted from soybeans to corn due to overproduction of soybeans in the current season, which led to lower prices.
Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Favaro said on Monday that Brazil and China would be announcing new agreements in ag trade on Wednesday; the latest details show the agreements will potentially cover fruit, beef, and pork, and will also include an updated list of meatpackers that are approved to export to China.
After getting US approval to launch strikes inside of Russia using US-supplied weapons, Ukraine did just that on Tuesday, striking a border town with a US ATACMS missile. Russian President Putin, in response, signed a new nuclear doctrine that gave him the ability to launch nuclear weapons in response to a ‘massive conventional attack’ on its soil.
Satellite data shows rainfall across the US on Monday was generally lighter than expected, but reached areas further to the west than the forecasts had predicted; heaviest rains of up to 2″ were seen near the Delta in parts of LA and MS, while a broader 0.5-1.5″ was seen from W OK/SW KS, up into N MN/WI. The far eastern Corn Belt was short-changed, with areas east of Indiana generally remaining mostly dry.
Forecast for the rest of this week shows light/scattered rains continuing to impact the east/northeast as this current system spins out, while the central/west-central part of the country looks to dry out a bit going into the weekend. The PNW also looks to stay wet at least into the first part of next week.
Week-two guidance has seen some model divergence the past 24 hours; the CPC’s outlook keeps all of the country besides the far south/southwest in a wetter than normal bias, the EU and GFS ensembles see wet conditions for the southeast and a more average precipitation outlook for central regions, and the EU AI model is wet in the southwest and across the south, while being dry across the northern tier of the country.
Of note on week-two, all four models see a drier bias for the PNW which would be a noted shift from the recent pattern here. Over the last 30 days, places in this corner of the country have seen 150-250% of normal rainfall in some cases.
Temperatures continue to trend cooler into the end of the month, with 10–15-day guidance from both the EU and the GFS models showing well-below average temps for the first week of December.
Snowfall predictions continue to fluctuate, with the GFS this morning showing light chances in the northeast/New England area into the end of this week, though most measurable snowfall remains confined to Canada. This will need monitoring into the end of the month.
Satellite data in South America showed another decent day of rains in northern Argentina on Monday, while the southern part of the country was again dry. Best rains were seen across parts of Bolivia and stretching into MGDS in Brazil, where totals reached up to 2.5″ in some places. The rest of northern/central Brazil saw just light/scattered showers.
Week-two guidance continues to show much improved rainfall chances for northern/central Argentina into the first days of December, while these rains also stretch into southern Brazil. Eastern/east-central Brazil sees a drier bias in this period, while western/northern Brazil continues to see normal to above normal rains. There remains little in the way of threats in the current forecast.
Have a great day.
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