Grain Comments: 11.17.25

Good morning. CBOT ag markets are mostly higher coming out of the weekend, with prices seeing a bit of a dead-cat-bounce as the dust from Friday’s data update is seemingly not quite all the way settled yet early in the day on Monday morning. In the case of the soybeans, which are the leaders in the space this morning, the easy explanation would be that Friday’s sell-off was probably overdone a bit if being based strictly on the USDA numbers seen in the reports, as the data was really pretty neutral; however, whether that is in-fact the case, or if the sell-off was more based on the broader fundamental landscape and ideas that China’s buying won’t be what was expected a couple weeks ago will be one of the bigger questions posed to traders this week. Corn futures to start Monday are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher – crude oil futures are trading either side of unchanged, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; NOPA Monthly Soybean Crush

• According to the CME Group, there were 6 additional contracts of November soybeans assigned for delivery Friday evening, as well as 7 contracts of rough rice.

• The USDA’s November WASDE update on Friday offered minor production adjustments for the US corn and soybean crops, but otherwise did little in terms of changing the overall fundamental landscape. Global stocks for all three of corn, beans and wheat came in on the heavier side vs expectations, further illustrating that the market outlook from here remains neutral to slightly bearish unless a production hiccup occurs in South America.

• Along with the regular WASDE data, the USDA also released back logged flash sales data for October and the first couple weeks of November, which added up to around 6.6 MMTs of sales. The bulk of this (4.9 MMTs) was corn, but was also mostly regular business, as the large volume sales to Mexico are common in October and November most every year. Soybean sales to China on a known basis totaled just 332,000 MTs in the period, which was generally disappointing in relation to trade expectations.

• NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release monthly crush and soybean oil stocks data for the US at 11am central time this morning. Traders see the group showing October crush likely reaching an all-time record at 209.522 mil bu, which would be up 6% from last month and up 5% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.257 bil lbs, which would be a three-month high and up 17% from the same month last year.

• Weekend trade news out of India has the country’s government possibly preparing to resume wheat and wheat product exports for the first time in more than three years as adequate stock levels and expectations for record production in the coming season has led industry sources to call for a lifting of the restrictions that have been in place since 2022. The Indian government on Friday also announced its sugar export quota for the coming season at 1.5 MMTs, which would be up from 1 MMTs last year and comes following an export ban due to a supply shortage in the 2023/24 season.

• Executives from the world’s number one meatpacker, JBS, told analysts last week that their market outlook for Q4 this year is still not overly optimistic, as beef margins look to remain tight into the end of the year due to an ongoing shortage of cattle in the US, where the company derives most of its revenue. The group added that they see supply-side issues remaining in place through most of 2026, before gradual improvements could occur in 2027.

President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday that he and his team had spoken with Chinese officials earlier in the day, and that they would be buying a lot of soybeans “before spring”. While somewhat encouraging that dialogue between the two sides seems to be ongoing, the comments could be taken as a negative from the standpoint that “spring” would seem to indicate a more drawn-out timeline for initial purchases, as opposed to the previously indicated deadline of January 1