Grain Comments: 11.18.25

Good morning. Ag markets are taking a breather this morning to start Tuesday trade at the CBOT following the sharp run-up seen on Monday, with all three of the corn, beans, and wheat currently within spitting distance of unchanged. We’ve stressed this ad nauseum the past several weeks, but the volatility illustrated in the past two trading sessions is not likely to go anywhere anytime soon. Chinese bean buying rumors will likely be a regular feature in the space for the next several months, and this, mixed with big crop prospects in South America and the already big crop sitting in bins across the US, will likely continue to give traders fits. Longer term price direction, especially in the soybean market, is almost entirely dependent on demand, especially if there aren’t any notable weather issues in Argentina or Brazil between now and April/May or if the US government continues to be mute on domestic biofuel policy. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher also. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are mostly lower to start, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 390 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 30 points and the NASDAQ is down 150 points.

Today’s Reports: API Energy Stocks

• Brazil’s CONAB showed in a weekly crop report released last night that soybean planting in the country as of Saturday the 15th has reached 69% complete, which compares to 74% through a similar day last year and the five-year average of 67.2%. Summer corn planting was estimated at 52.6% complete compared to 53% average, while wheat harvest was seen at 73.7% complete compared to 76% average. To view the full report, please click here.

• Reuters reported late in the day on Monday that China’s state-owned grain buyer COFCO had purchased 14 cargoes of US beans on Monday, or some 840,000 MTs, which if accurate, would be well above the amounts rumored throughout the day yesterday. Cash sources familiar with the purchases say 8 of the vessels were for shipment in Dec/Jan out of the US Gulf, while the rest were off the PNW for shipment in January.

• Additional customs data out of China for the month of October showed corn imports in the month at 360,000 MTs, which was up a little over 43% from last year; YTD imports now stand at 1.29 MMTs, which is up 90% from last year. Wheat imports were down 30% from last year at 160,000 MTs, which brings cumulative imports for the year to 3.15 MMTs, down some 71% from last year.

• Russian statistics service Rosstat said said that Russian ag organizations had increased their reserves of grains and legumes by more than 14% from last year to 40.8 MMTs as of the end of October; the group said wheat reserves were up more than 21% to 26.5 MMTs, while corn reserves were down 30% to just 2.99 MMTs. Furthermore, Rosstat said wheat sales in October were up 4% from last year to 6.3 MMTs, while corn sales in the month were down 16% from last year at just 897,300 MTs.

• Staying in the Russian wheat world, data released from the country’s Federal Centre for Agricultural Products Safety Evaluation showed that grain exports from the country’s Baltic Sea terminals were up by some 30% in 2025 to 1.3 MMTs through the middle of November, despite overall exports from the country as a whole continuing to lag last year through the first several months of the new marketing year.

• Chinese Premier Li Qiang said following a meeting on Monday with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow that China was ready to deepen cooperation with Russia in sectors like energy and agriculture, adding that he also hoped Russia would make it easier for Chinese enterprises to invest and operate within Russia.

• Though there continues to be nothing new in terms of biofuel policy from the Trump administration, NOPA on Monday reported that US soybean crushers have continued to expand operations by way of a new record monthly crush figure during October of 227.647 mil bu. The figure blew trade expectations out of the water, and was up some 14% from the same month last year. In the update, the group also showed soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.305 bil lbs, which was up nearly 22% from last year.

• In the financial world, odds of a December rate cut are continuing to dwindle this week, with the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning showing a less than 50% chance that rates are trimmed another quarter point in the Fed’s final meeting for the 2025 calendar year. The shift in tone from just a month or so ago continues to be the result of labor market signals that have continued to soften and inflation that has remained stickier than the Fed would like.

• Light rains have begun falling across the Midwest and eastern part of the US last night and into the morning this morning, with the models still showing additional precip across the region and then further south through the rest of the week this week and into the weekend. Not a lot new this morning on the temperature side, as models continue to see mostly above average day time highs in the east the rest of the week, though the warmest air will stay further south and east than was seen last week.