Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are near unchanged at the CBOT to start Thursday trade, as another uneventful overnight trading session has unfolded to this point. Beans/bean oil are the upside leaders this morning, while the wheat market continues to drag corn higher on fears of an escalation of the events in Ukraine. As we mentioned yesterday, Dec corn has its sights set on the 4.34 3/4 number for the rest of the week, with a close above here being seen as a win for the bull camp going into the weekend. Otherwise, fundamentals remain largely the same as previous sessions this week. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading around a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up $1.30-1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 140 points, and the US$ index is trading either side of unchanged. The S&P500 is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending November 14th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 1.0-2.2 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 1.0-1.6 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 275k-600k mt’s.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association showed palm oil exports out of the country in the month of September totaled 1.86 mil tons, which was down from August’s 2.384 mil ton figure. Cumulative exports since Jan 1 are seen at 21.6 mil tons, down just over 12% from the same period last year.
China and Brazil on Wednesday signed 37 separate trade agreements, ranging anywhere from agriculture and infrastructure to nuclear power and telecommunications according to sources familiar. Brazil’s Ag Ministry said the deals could amount to as much as $450 mil USD in increased export revenue.
Furthermore, Brazilian meat packer BRF SA, who is the world’s largest chicken exporter, announced deals in parallel with the broader trade agreements to acquire a processed foods factory in China’s Henan province for $43mil USD, along with plans to further invest an additional $36mil USD in said plant for upgrades and expansions.
Several diplomats present at the G20 meetings noted their Chinese counterparts seemed to take a more conciliatory turn in their approach to this year’s meeting, noting less focus on their own ‘narrow interests’ and a more proactive mindset regarding the broader consensus.
Russia has fired an ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missile) into central Ukraine for the first time in the war, marking further escalation between the two sides following Ukraine’s use of both US-supplied ATACMS missiles and also British-French supplied storm-shadow missiles to strike targets deeper into Russia.
Nvidia’s stock is trading around 2.5% lower this morning, as yesterday’s Q3 earnings report beat Wall Street predictions, but not by as much as in recent reports, which caused selling to emerge. Otherwise, today’s data slate in the financial world remains on the lighter side.
Light snow/ice impacted parts of the northeastern US through the night Wednesday night/Thursday morning, while rains also continued to fall in the PNW; otherwise, the rest of the country was mostly dry over the last 24 hours.
Forecasts through the weekend continue to show precipitation further affecting both of these areas and continue to be mostly unchanged from previous runs this week. Both the PNW and the New England area will see a mixture of rain and snow into the first part of next week, with models seeing a bit of disagreement on exactly what type of precipitation shows up and for which areas.
The 10–15-day period continues to fluctuate, which keeps confidence beyond the Thanksgiving holiday low. The EU ensemble run is the wettest of the 4 this morning, with an above precipitation bias seen for almost all of the eastern half of the country and also through the northern Plains. The CPC is similar but sees pockets of possibly drier conditions, while the EU’s AI model and the GFS ensemble both show a wet bias in the southeast while the central Midwest is seen drier.
On the temp side, 10–15-day maps actually got colder overnight with the GFS outlook showing temps that could be some 15 degrees F below normal as far south as KS and MO through the first week of December. By Thanksgiving next week, the majority of the country will see temps that are well below average, following one more brief shot of warmer through mid-week.
Satellite data shows rains in South America yesterday were again light through most of Argentina, with an area south of Cordoba picking up 0.1-1″. Eastern Brazil was mostly dry save for a few light/spotty showers, while west-central Brazil into northern Brazil saw rains of similar totals, with some local areas receiving up to 2″.
Argentina’s 10–15-day outlook trended drier overnight, but rains continue to be seen in the 5–10-day period. The heavy rainfall that was advertised for southern Brazil/Uruguay/northeast Argentina that was seen the past couple days also seems to be further out in the Atlantic on this morning’s runs. There remains little/no threats to the forecast for central and northern Brazil.
Have a great day
Grain Comments: 11-21-2024
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are near unchanged at the CBOT to start Thursday trade, as another uneventful overnight trading session has unfolded to this point. Beans/bean oil are the upside leaders this morning, while the wheat market continues to drag corn higher on fears of an escalation of the events in Ukraine. As we mentioned yesterday, Dec corn has its sights set on the 4.34 3/4 number for the rest of the week, with a close above here being seen as a win for the bull camp going into the weekend. Otherwise, fundamentals remain largely the same as previous sessions this week. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading around a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up $1.30-1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 140 points, and the US$ index is trading either side of unchanged. The S&P500 is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending November 14th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 1.0-2.2 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 1.0-1.6 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 275k-600k mt’s.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association showed palm oil exports out of the country in the month of September totaled 1.86 mil tons, which was down from August’s 2.384 mil ton figure. Cumulative exports since Jan 1 are seen at 21.6 mil tons, down just over 12% from the same period last year.
China and Brazil on Wednesday signed 37 separate trade agreements, ranging anywhere from agriculture and infrastructure to nuclear power and telecommunications according to sources familiar. Brazil’s Ag Ministry said the deals could amount to as much as $450 mil USD in increased export revenue.
Furthermore, Brazilian meat packer BRF SA, who is the world’s largest chicken exporter, announced deals in parallel with the broader trade agreements to acquire a processed foods factory in China’s Henan province for $43mil USD, along with plans to further invest an additional $36mil USD in said plant for upgrades and expansions.
Several diplomats present at the G20 meetings noted their Chinese counterparts seemed to take a more conciliatory turn in their approach to this year’s meeting, noting less focus on their own ‘narrow interests’ and a more proactive mindset regarding the broader consensus.
Russia has fired an ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missile) into central Ukraine for the first time in the war, marking further escalation between the two sides following Ukraine’s use of both US-supplied ATACMS missiles and also British-French supplied storm-shadow missiles to strike targets deeper into Russia.
Nvidia’s stock is trading around 2.5% lower this morning, as yesterday’s Q3 earnings report beat Wall Street predictions, but not by as much as in recent reports, which caused selling to emerge. Otherwise, today’s data slate in the financial world remains on the lighter side.
Light snow/ice impacted parts of the northeastern US through the night Wednesday night/Thursday morning, while rains also continued to fall in the PNW; otherwise, the rest of the country was mostly dry over the last 24 hours.
Forecasts through the weekend continue to show precipitation further affecting both of these areas and continue to be mostly unchanged from previous runs this week. Both the PNW and the New England area will see a mixture of rain and snow into the first part of next week, with models seeing a bit of disagreement on exactly what type of precipitation shows up and for which areas.
The 10–15-day period continues to fluctuate, which keeps confidence beyond the Thanksgiving holiday low. The EU ensemble run is the wettest of the 4 this morning, with an above precipitation bias seen for almost all of the eastern half of the country and also through the northern Plains. The CPC is similar but sees pockets of possibly drier conditions, while the EU’s AI model and the GFS ensemble both show a wet bias in the southeast while the central Midwest is seen drier.
On the temp side, 10–15-day maps actually got colder overnight with the GFS outlook showing temps that could be some 15 degrees F below normal as far south as KS and MO through the first week of December. By Thanksgiving next week, the majority of the country will see temps that are well below average, following one more brief shot of warmer through mid-week.
Satellite data shows rains in South America yesterday were again light through most of Argentina, with an area south of Cordoba picking up 0.1-1″. Eastern Brazil was mostly dry save for a few light/spotty showers, while west-central Brazil into northern Brazil saw rains of similar totals, with some local areas receiving up to 2″.
Argentina’s 10–15-day outlook trended drier overnight, but rains continue to be seen in the 5–10-day period. The heavy rainfall that was advertised for southern Brazil/Uruguay/northeast Argentina that was seen the past couple days also seems to be further out in the Atlantic on this morning’s runs. There remains little/no threats to the forecast for central and northern Brazil.
Have a great day
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