Good morning.
Small ranges and low volume has been the theme of the overnight trading session to wrap up the last full week of trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. Beans scored new lows again several hours into the session last night, while corn and wheat futures have been trading either side of unchanged. Fridays are trend days at the CBOT, especially as we inch ever closer to the holiday trading season, and today looks to be no different; fresh market-moving fundamental news that isn’t related to a war or politics is likely to be lacking as we wrap up the week. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around 50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is up 50-60 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 50 points. Gold futures are again up around $25/oz this morning.
The USDA’s cattle on feed report for the month of November, due out after the close this afternoon, is expected to show cattle on feed as of November 1 at 11.948 mil head, which would be down less than 1% from last month. Placements are seen at 103% of last month at 2.245 mil head, and marketings are seen at 105% of last month at 1.853 mil head.
The weekly crop report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed a slow week of corn planting progress, as efforts seemingly were focused on getting soybeans in the ground. 39.4% of the corn crop was planted vs 38.6% last week, while soybean planting advanced from 20.1% complete to 35.8%. Wheat harvest was seen advancing from 17.2% to 29.3% complete.
The International Grains Council on Thursday lowered their estimate of 2024/25 world grain stocks to 576 mil tons, which is down from October’s 584 mil ton estimate, and would also be the smallest figure of the last 10 years. The lower stocks number was a result of both slightly lower production and also slightly larger demand.
French ag consultancy FranceAgriMer pegged corn harvest in the country at 82% complete as of Monday, up from 71% last week but still behind the five-year average of 96%. Soft wheat planting reached 90% according to the same group, compared to the five-year average of 87%.
Ukraine’s ag ministry indicated grain exports in the current marketing year had reached 17.2 mil tons, compared to 12 mil tons in the same period last year. Wheat exports are up nearly 60% from a year ago, while corn exports are up roughly 16%.
US commercial beef production in the month of October was seen at 2.47 bil lbs., which was up nearly 12% from September, and up 5.4% from October of last year. Similarly, pork production in the month was seen at 2.54 bil lbs., which was up 14% from September and up 5.2% from last year. Cattle slaughter increased 1.2% from 2023 in October, while hog slaughter was up 4.2%.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 16th were seen at 782k tons, which was up just over 2% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 370k tons were up 17.5% from last week, while soybean shipments at 400k tons were down 7.4%. STL barge rates were down $1.52 from the week prior at $16.24/short ton.
President-elect Trump announced Pam Bondi, Florida’s former attorney general, as the head of the Justice Department following the drop out of Matt Gaetz. However, there has still been no announcement made as to the Treasury Secretary position.
Much of the upper Midwest and into the northeast saw its first snowfall of the season on Thursday, as NOAA’s 24-hour snowfall map shows a widespread area from MN to KY to NY picking up at least a dusting. Parts of WI/IL/IN/MI that border Lake Michigan saw totals of 4-6″, with some local areas even seeing more than 6″. The PNW also saw heavy snowfall at elevation in the Cascade Mountains.
Forecasts through the weekend and into next week show snowfall continuing in the northeast and also the PNW, though the upper Midwest is expected to see several days of drier conditions. Accumulation in the northeast is expected to reach up to an additional 1-2″ by Monday morning. Heavy snowfall is expected to continue in the Rocky’s out west.
Through the rest of next week, the GFS forecast shows a band of snowfall through the Midwest in parts of MO/S IL/IN, and also additional accumulation around the Great Lakes and the greater Northeast. Otherwise, the Wheat Belt and the broader central section of the US looks to see a week of mostly dry weather next week.
Week-two forecasts trended drier overnight in the 10–15-day period, though as we’ve mentioned all week, confidence beyond the next 5-7 days is low due to the presence of a possible Alaskan ride of high pressure that will displace very cold air currently stuck over Canada. Flow will be determined by how far south and east this pocket of cold air is pushed.
Temperature outlooks for the 10–15-day period trended marginally warmer overnight than what was seen yesterday, but temps are still expected to be some 10-15 degrees F below normal beyond Thanksgiving.
Argentina was mostly dry on Thursday according to satellite data, while all but the very far southern tip of Brazil picked up anywhere from trace rainfall to 1-2″; heaviest amounts were seen in Bolivia and parts of northwest Brazil.
Forecast for the next week for Argentina is again wetter overnight for all but the far north, while southern Brazil sees improved rainfall chances in the week-two period. It is important that these rains in the week-two maps show up as advertised, as there are beginning to be some local dryness concerns in this part of the country. As we mentioned yesterday though, this is NOT widespread or threatening too overall production forecasts at this time.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-22-2024
Good morning.
Small ranges and low volume has been the theme of the overnight trading session to wrap up the last full week of trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. Beans scored new lows again several hours into the session last night, while corn and wheat futures have been trading either side of unchanged. Fridays are trend days at the CBOT, especially as we inch ever closer to the holiday trading season, and today looks to be no different; fresh market-moving fundamental news that isn’t related to a war or politics is likely to be lacking as we wrap up the week. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around 50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is up 50-60 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 50 points. Gold futures are again up around $25/oz this morning.
The USDA’s cattle on feed report for the month of November, due out after the close this afternoon, is expected to show cattle on feed as of November 1 at 11.948 mil head, which would be down less than 1% from last month. Placements are seen at 103% of last month at 2.245 mil head, and marketings are seen at 105% of last month at 1.853 mil head.
The weekly crop report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed a slow week of corn planting progress, as efforts seemingly were focused on getting soybeans in the ground. 39.4% of the corn crop was planted vs 38.6% last week, while soybean planting advanced from 20.1% complete to 35.8%. Wheat harvest was seen advancing from 17.2% to 29.3% complete.
The International Grains Council on Thursday lowered their estimate of 2024/25 world grain stocks to 576 mil tons, which is down from October’s 584 mil ton estimate, and would also be the smallest figure of the last 10 years. The lower stocks number was a result of both slightly lower production and also slightly larger demand.
French ag consultancy FranceAgriMer pegged corn harvest in the country at 82% complete as of Monday, up from 71% last week but still behind the five-year average of 96%. Soft wheat planting reached 90% according to the same group, compared to the five-year average of 87%.
Ukraine’s ag ministry indicated grain exports in the current marketing year had reached 17.2 mil tons, compared to 12 mil tons in the same period last year. Wheat exports are up nearly 60% from a year ago, while corn exports are up roughly 16%.
US commercial beef production in the month of October was seen at 2.47 bil lbs., which was up nearly 12% from September, and up 5.4% from October of last year. Similarly, pork production in the month was seen at 2.54 bil lbs., which was up 14% from September and up 5.2% from last year. Cattle slaughter increased 1.2% from 2023 in October, while hog slaughter was up 4.2%.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 16th were seen at 782k tons, which was up just over 2% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 370k tons were up 17.5% from last week, while soybean shipments at 400k tons were down 7.4%. STL barge rates were down $1.52 from the week prior at $16.24/short ton.
President-elect Trump announced Pam Bondi, Florida’s former attorney general, as the head of the Justice Department following the drop out of Matt Gaetz. However, there has still been no announcement made as to the Treasury Secretary position.
Much of the upper Midwest and into the northeast saw its first snowfall of the season on Thursday, as NOAA’s 24-hour snowfall map shows a widespread area from MN to KY to NY picking up at least a dusting. Parts of WI/IL/IN/MI that border Lake Michigan saw totals of 4-6″, with some local areas even seeing more than 6″. The PNW also saw heavy snowfall at elevation in the Cascade Mountains.
Forecasts through the weekend and into next week show snowfall continuing in the northeast and also the PNW, though the upper Midwest is expected to see several days of drier conditions. Accumulation in the northeast is expected to reach up to an additional 1-2″ by Monday morning. Heavy snowfall is expected to continue in the Rocky’s out west.
Through the rest of next week, the GFS forecast shows a band of snowfall through the Midwest in parts of MO/S IL/IN, and also additional accumulation around the Great Lakes and the greater Northeast. Otherwise, the Wheat Belt and the broader central section of the US looks to see a week of mostly dry weather next week.
Week-two forecasts trended drier overnight in the 10–15-day period, though as we’ve mentioned all week, confidence beyond the next 5-7 days is low due to the presence of a possible Alaskan ride of high pressure that will displace very cold air currently stuck over Canada. Flow will be determined by how far south and east this pocket of cold air is pushed.
Temperature outlooks for the 10–15-day period trended marginally warmer overnight than what was seen yesterday, but temps are still expected to be some 10-15 degrees F below normal beyond Thanksgiving.
Argentina was mostly dry on Thursday according to satellite data, while all but the very far southern tip of Brazil picked up anywhere from trace rainfall to 1-2″; heaviest amounts were seen in Bolivia and parts of northwest Brazil.
Forecast for the next week for Argentina is again wetter overnight for all but the far north, while southern Brazil sees improved rainfall chances in the week-two period. It is important that these rains in the week-two maps show up as advertised, as there are beginning to be some local dryness concerns in this part of the country. As we mentioned yesterday though, this is NOT widespread or threatening too overall production forecasts at this time.
Have a great day.
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