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Grain Comments: 11-27-2023

Good morning!

Brazilian rains were widespread over the weekend but once again lightest in Mato Grosso, the main areas for crop concerns so far, this growing season. That remains the trend going forward as well—it will be tough for the bears to totally take control with that tendency intact, and crop estimates on the downswing overall. StoneX Brazil is expected to update its number on Friday. The January CBOT soybean contract put in a bottom right on the 200-day moving average overnight as well, providing near-term help.

U.S. corn export sales fell back to 56.4 million bushels last week, down from 71.2 mbu the week prior but ten mbu above the comparable week last year, and on the high end of the trade estimate range. Weekly sales have topped last year’s comparable for nine weeks in a row now (though that number is 73.0 mbu next week); cumulative sales are up to 887 mbu, up 261 mbu on last year’s pace. The USDA is looking for a sharp year-over-year corn export increase of more than 400 mbu for the 2023/24 marketing season.

Precipitation was widespread over the weekend with rains south and snow north, with some good snow amounts from the panhandles up through OK and KS in particular. This week looks dry until rains return to the south Thursday/Friday; extended maps are varied but most favor the dry side going forward. Temperatures are cold to start this week but will start to trend towards the high side of average for both the 6-10- and 11-15-day time frames.

Argentina was mostly dry over the weekend, but rains look abundant this week through the country’s corn and soybean areas, before dry conditions return for the 6–10-day period. Brazilian rains were widespread this weekend as well, though the best chances shift a bit southward for the next ten days. Moisture supplies will remain short in the key state of Mato Grosso with the lightest numbers over the weekend and the weakest chances going forward.

Have a great day!

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