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Grain Comments: 11-28-2023

Good morning:

Ag markets are higher to begin the day, although corn futures are barely in the green. Corn yesterday set new contract lows as the record large U.S. crop and a bearish fundamental picture weigh on the market. Energy markets are also higher, and the Dollar Index is firmer. Equity futures are little changed.

Corn fell to a three year low yesterday as supplies are plentiful and export demand has not increased appreciably despite the market’s descent to contract lows.

There are rumors this morning that China has purchased more U.S. soybeans, to be shipped from the PNW next March. This has helped rally the soybean market overnight.

.NASS issued its final Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon, estimating the U.S. corn harvest to be 96% complete. Wisconsin still has 15% of the corn crop in the field. Ohio’s progress was estimated at 86% complete. The initial 2024 Crop Progress Report is scheduled for April 1st.

NASS estimated that 50% of the winter wheat crop was in good or excellent condition, up 2% from a week ago. A year ago, the rating was 34%.

Weather forecasts continue to suggest better chances for beneficial rainfall for central and northern Brazil next week. However, rain will be scattered with amounts on the light side this week.

Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their net short positions for corn, and wheat. Funds were sellers of soybeans last week but remain net long beans. They were buyers of soyoil and soymeal.

Thursday (November 30th) is the first notice day for December futures. Corn deliveries are likely. Long December positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by tomorrow’s market close to avoid the possibility of being delivered on.

Have a great day!

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