Good morning. We hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving. CBOT ag futures are called mixed this morning following the run-up seen on Wednesday, with there being no overnight trade and a hard open currently set for 8:30am central time this morning. Notable to start the day is that trading in the outside markets overnight has been halted as well as of this writing due to a massive computer glitch at the CME; it is believed as of now that the ag space will still open as scheduled, with other markets expected to resume trading at 7:30am central time according to the CME’s most recent update. Assuming the markets do open like normal, the day will be further shortened by a 12:05pm central time close, and we assume attention throughout the day will be fleeting. News-wise, we’ll have an eye out for any China business on the daily reporting system this morning at 8am, but otherwise, we expect it to be a quieter of morning of trade. Before the shutdown, outside markets were trading mostly quietly higher to start the evening last night, with crude oil futures up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index up 50 points and the US$ index up 15-20 points.
The weekly crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina this week showed corn planting had advanced to 39.3% complete, with 82% of the crop rated excellent and 18% of the crop rated normal. Soybean planting was seen at 36% complete, while 62% of the crop was rated excellent and 38% of the crop was rated normal. Lastly for wheat, harvest was seen advancing to 33.9% complete, while their production estimate was raised 1.5 MMTs to 25.5 MMTs; this would be a new record if accurate.
South American agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday that it sees Brazilian soybean production in the current season at 178.1 MMTs, with planted area seen at 48.8 million hectares. The group added that it sees exports reaching 109.1 MMTs this year, with a further increase to 112 MMTs expected in the 2026/27 season.
Sources familiar with the matter say China has halted soybean imports from five Brazilian plants over sanitation concerns after inspectors found wheat grains treated with pesticides mixed into the shipments. Brazil’s Ag Ministry confirmed the suspensions but added that the five units compare to a total of more than 2,000 entities registered to export to China and said that “Brazil maintains a solid and strategic relationship with China.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said over the holiday that a peace proposal presented by President Trump and the US was a starting point to ending the war in Ukraine, but that certain details still needed to be hashed out, essentially echoing comments from the Ukrainian side last week. Talks are expected to be ongoing this weekend and into next week, with a US team led by Steve Witkoff expected in Moscow though there hasn’t been an exact day given.
Weather focus across the Midwest the next couple days will continue to be on the coming winter storm system that is expected to begin down snow in the northwestern part of the region tonight and into tomorrow and then begin working its way east across the Midwest through the day Saturday and into Sunday. The EU model’s forecast for this morning shows the heaviest accumulation of 8-12″ through a pocket along the IL/IA border generally between MO and WI, while a broader swath of the area is expected to see accumulations of anywhere from 2-8″.
Then, into next week, models see an additional smaller snow system Monday night into Tuesday, and then yet another bigger round the end of next week Thursday/Friday and then into the weekend.
Not a lot new again still for South America today; models still see good rains expanding through Argentina beginning today and going through the weekend, while rainfall is also expected to continue through most of northern and north-central Brazil into next week. Forecasts are slightly drier in the extended period for southern Brazil than was seen earlier this week but still show at least some sort of measurable precipitation here over the next 10-15 days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-28-2025
Good morning. We hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving. CBOT ag futures are called mixed this morning following the run-up seen on Wednesday, with there being no overnight trade and a hard open currently set for 8:30am central time this morning. Notable to start the day is that trading in the outside markets overnight has been halted as well as of this writing due to a massive computer glitch at the CME; it is believed as of now that the ag space will still open as scheduled, with other markets expected to resume trading at 7:30am central time according to the CME’s most recent update. Assuming the markets do open like normal, the day will be further shortened by a 12:05pm central time close, and we assume attention throughout the day will be fleeting. News-wise, we’ll have an eye out for any China business on the daily reporting system this morning at 8am, but otherwise, we expect it to be a quieter of morning of trade. Before the shutdown, outside markets were trading mostly quietly higher to start the evening last night, with crude oil futures up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index up 50 points and the US$ index up 15-20 points.
The weekly crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina this week showed corn planting had advanced to 39.3% complete, with 82% of the crop rated excellent and 18% of the crop rated normal. Soybean planting was seen at 36% complete, while 62% of the crop was rated excellent and 38% of the crop was rated normal. Lastly for wheat, harvest was seen advancing to 33.9% complete, while their production estimate was raised 1.5 MMTs to 25.5 MMTs; this would be a new record if accurate.
South American agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday that it sees Brazilian soybean production in the current season at 178.1 MMTs, with planted area seen at 48.8 million hectares. The group added that it sees exports reaching 109.1 MMTs this year, with a further increase to 112 MMTs expected in the 2026/27 season.
Sources familiar with the matter say China has halted soybean imports from five Brazilian plants over sanitation concerns after inspectors found wheat grains treated with pesticides mixed into the shipments. Brazil’s Ag Ministry confirmed the suspensions but added that the five units compare to a total of more than 2,000 entities registered to export to China and said that “Brazil maintains a solid and strategic relationship with China.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said over the holiday that a peace proposal presented by President Trump and the US was a starting point to ending the war in Ukraine, but that certain details still needed to be hashed out, essentially echoing comments from the Ukrainian side last week. Talks are expected to be ongoing this weekend and into next week, with a US team led by Steve Witkoff expected in Moscow though there hasn’t been an exact day given.
Weather focus across the Midwest the next couple days will continue to be on the coming winter storm system that is expected to begin down snow in the northwestern part of the region tonight and into tomorrow and then begin working its way east across the Midwest through the day Saturday and into Sunday. The EU model’s forecast for this morning shows the heaviest accumulation of 8-12″ through a pocket along the IL/IA border generally between MO and WI, while a broader swath of the area is expected to see accumulations of anywhere from 2-8″.
Then, into next week, models see an additional smaller snow system Monday night into Tuesday, and then yet another bigger round the end of next week Thursday/Friday and then into the weekend.
Not a lot new again still for South America today; models still see good rains expanding through Argentina beginning today and going through the weekend, while rainfall is also expected to continue through most of northern and north-central Brazil into next week. Forecasts are slightly drier in the extended period for southern Brazil than was seen earlier this week but still show at least some sort of measurable precipitation here over the next 10-15 days.
Have a great day.
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