Good morning.
A new month and new week have started mostly lower for Chicago ag futures this morning, though spot corn and soybeans each managed to score new highs above what was seen last week before rolling over not long into Sunday night’s trading session. As we move past the Thanksgiving holiday and get started in December, market focus in the short term looks to remain largely similar in terms of the themes seen generally since the back third of harvest across the US; the number one driver of price throughout the space will continue to be China, especially as it pertains to the beans and regardless to some extent of what fundamentals are otherwise, while production prospects in South America remain topic of interest number two. Other things like the US spring acreage mix next year and biofuel policy from the Trump administration will also garner market attention into 2026, but we are less optimistic on seeing any sort of meaningful nearby updates on either one of these fronts that would materially alter the existing fundamental landscape. Corn futures to get the week started are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 15-20 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 220 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 260 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales update, with data for the week ending October 23rd, was expected to, at the time, show corn sales for that week between 1.10-2.10 MMTs, while soybean sales for the week were seen between 600k-1.3 mil MTs. On average, both of these figures would be down from both the same week last year and the figures released last week for the week ending October 16th. The report will be out this morning at the regular 7:30am central release time.
Crude oil futures are seeing buying to start the new week this week following weekend news that a key pipeline linking oil fields in Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea coast had damaged in an attack. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which contains shareholders from both Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as the US, and who operates the pipeline said there were no injuries to staff or contractors, but declined to comment on when normal loading operations at Single Point Mooring 2, which is essentially a floating buoy that tankers connect to load oil.
Also adding to the buying in crude oil to start the week is weekend news that OPEC+ will be sticking with plans to pause production increases during the first quarter of 2026 that were announced at the beginning of November. The group reiterated during a Sunday meeting that the move reflects expectations for weaker seasonal market conditions.
CyrusOne, the company who operates the CME Group’s data center in Chicago suburb Aurora, IL, said in a statement over the weekend that it had taken steps to bolster the backup cooling capacity at the facility following an overheating incident on Friday that led to markets being halted in the overnight for more than 10 hours. Thisces familiar with the situation, noted last week that the CME’s disaster recovery plan includes provisions for a shift to a New York area data center, but the exchange decided not to make this switch based on available information at the time pointing to a brief period of disruption.
Following what were described by both sides as productive talks over the weekend in Florida, officials from both the US and Ukraine, led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have again expressed optimism towards ending the ongoing war with Russia despite there still being challenges on both sides. The talks preceded plans in place for special envoy Steve Witkoff, who was present at the discussions, to travel to Moscow for additional talks on the situation later today.
After news late last week that China had suspended pork imports from Spain due to an AFS outbreak, Mexico announced similar moves over the weekend, saying it had suspended all pork product imports from the European country until further notice. The moves could turn global demand to the US and other world supplies, which is likely the reason for the strength in futures prices seen last week.
Though volatility has been extreme the past couple weeks, the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning is still showing a nearly 88% chance that the Fed decides to make one additional quarter-point interest rate cut this year following the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting, which wraps up on Wednesday the 10th. Ahead of the meeting though, traders will have to contend with one more notable dataset this week, as Friday they will see updated PCE inflation data for the month of September ahead of the meeting.
A weekend winter storm system left snowpack of anywhere from a half inch to upwards of 10 inches across a wide majority of the Midwest, which along with additional snow expected for some tonight and into tomorrow, should aid the recently planted winter wheat crop as it pertains to a coming shot of cold weather. Starting with the additional snowfall, models this morning are showing a smaller, faster moving system working through the central Midwest that could put down up to an additional 1-2″ of accumulation today and tomorrow.
Then beyond mid-week, models are also in good agreement on a shot of cold, arctic air punching into the Midwest Wednesday/Thursday, with lows Thursday morning currently expected to be well below 0 across a wide swath of the Midwest. Coldest air relative to normal looks to center in/around IA and surrounding areas and then looks to move east into Friday. The most extreme cold is then mostly out by the weekend, but longer-term models still show the same warm southwest, cool northeast pattern that was present most of last week working into the back half of the month.
Rains through South America over the weekend were largely as expected, with Argentina seeing local totals of anywhere from a quarter inch to 3″ in some areas further to the north, while Brazil continued to see light/scattered rainfall mostly in the northwest of the country while areas to the south and east remained on the drier side.
For this week, model output is similar to what was seen going home on Friday from a precipitation standpoint. Argentina looks to again see several days of mostly beneficial dryness this week before a system looks to return early next week, and then in Brazil, rainfall looks to slowly keep expanding northward through the week this week, though the best totals will continue to be seen across the country’s northern growing regions, while the more productive areas to the south see rains, but with totals lower than those in the north.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-01-2025
Good morning.
A new month and new week have started mostly lower for Chicago ag futures this morning, though spot corn and soybeans each managed to score new highs above what was seen last week before rolling over not long into Sunday night’s trading session. As we move past the Thanksgiving holiday and get started in December, market focus in the short term looks to remain largely similar in terms of the themes seen generally since the back third of harvest across the US; the number one driver of price throughout the space will continue to be China, especially as it pertains to the beans and regardless to some extent of what fundamentals are otherwise, while production prospects in South America remain topic of interest number two. Other things like the US spring acreage mix next year and biofuel policy from the Trump administration will also garner market attention into 2026, but we are less optimistic on seeing any sort of meaningful nearby updates on either one of these fronts that would materially alter the existing fundamental landscape. Corn futures to get the week started are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 15-20 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 220 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 260 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales update, with data for the week ending October 23rd, was expected to, at the time, show corn sales for that week between 1.10-2.10 MMTs, while soybean sales for the week were seen between 600k-1.3 mil MTs. On average, both of these figures would be down from both the same week last year and the figures released last week for the week ending October 16th. The report will be out this morning at the regular 7:30am central release time.
Crude oil futures are seeing buying to start the new week this week following weekend news that a key pipeline linking oil fields in Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea coast had damaged in an attack. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which contains shareholders from both Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as the US, and who operates the pipeline said there were no injuries to staff or contractors, but declined to comment on when normal loading operations at Single Point Mooring 2, which is essentially a floating buoy that tankers connect to load oil.
Also adding to the buying in crude oil to start the week is weekend news that OPEC+ will be sticking with plans to pause production increases during the first quarter of 2026 that were announced at the beginning of November. The group reiterated during a Sunday meeting that the move reflects expectations for weaker seasonal market conditions.
CyrusOne, the company who operates the CME Group’s data center in Chicago suburb Aurora, IL, said in a statement over the weekend that it had taken steps to bolster the backup cooling capacity at the facility following an overheating incident on Friday that led to markets being halted in the overnight for more than 10 hours. Thisces familiar with the situation, noted last week that the CME’s disaster recovery plan includes provisions for a shift to a New York area data center, but the exchange decided not to make this switch based on available information at the time pointing to a brief period of disruption.
Following what were described by both sides as productive talks over the weekend in Florida, officials from both the US and Ukraine, led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have again expressed optimism towards ending the ongoing war with Russia despite there still being challenges on both sides. The talks preceded plans in place for special envoy Steve Witkoff, who was present at the discussions, to travel to Moscow for additional talks on the situation later today.
After news late last week that China had suspended pork imports from Spain due to an AFS outbreak, Mexico announced similar moves over the weekend, saying it had suspended all pork product imports from the European country until further notice. The moves could turn global demand to the US and other world supplies, which is likely the reason for the strength in futures prices seen last week.
Though volatility has been extreme the past couple weeks, the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning is still showing a nearly 88% chance that the Fed decides to make one additional quarter-point interest rate cut this year following the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting, which wraps up on Wednesday the 10th. Ahead of the meeting though, traders will have to contend with one more notable dataset this week, as Friday they will see updated PCE inflation data for the month of September ahead of the meeting.
A weekend winter storm system left snowpack of anywhere from a half inch to upwards of 10 inches across a wide majority of the Midwest, which along with additional snow expected for some tonight and into tomorrow, should aid the recently planted winter wheat crop as it pertains to a coming shot of cold weather. Starting with the additional snowfall, models this morning are showing a smaller, faster moving system working through the central Midwest that could put down up to an additional 1-2″ of accumulation today and tomorrow.
Then beyond mid-week, models are also in good agreement on a shot of cold, arctic air punching into the Midwest Wednesday/Thursday, with lows Thursday morning currently expected to be well below 0 across a wide swath of the Midwest. Coldest air relative to normal looks to center in/around IA and surrounding areas and then looks to move east into Friday. The most extreme cold is then mostly out by the weekend, but longer-term models still show the same warm southwest, cool northeast pattern that was present most of last week working into the back half of the month.
Rains through South America over the weekend were largely as expected, with Argentina seeing local totals of anywhere from a quarter inch to 3″ in some areas further to the north, while Brazil continued to see light/scattered rainfall mostly in the northwest of the country while areas to the south and east remained on the drier side.
For this week, model output is similar to what was seen going home on Friday from a precipitation standpoint. Argentina looks to again see several days of mostly beneficial dryness this week before a system looks to return early next week, and then in Brazil, rainfall looks to slowly keep expanding northward through the week this week, though the best totals will continue to be seen across the country’s northern growing regions, while the more productive areas to the south see rains, but with totals lower than those in the north.
Have a great day.
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