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Grain Comments: 12-06-2023

Good morning:

Ag markets trading higher this morning. Ideas of additional demand from China for all three commodities is providing support. Corn is up 2 cents. Wheat is up 6-7 cents and has broken through the 100-day moving average of $6.32. Soybeans are up 6-7 cents and found support at $13.00. The US dollar is near unchanged. Crude oil is down $0.60/barrel. DOW futures are 50 points higher.

Rumors circulating China purchased 3-4 U.S. cargoes of soybeans for Jan/Feb.

Rumors circulating China switched up to 10 cargoes of corn from Brazil to the U.S.

Argentine President-elect Javier Milei inauguration will be on Sunday December 10th. The trade will be watching closely what the new leader’s policies will be, especially export taxes. It is expected he will eliminate export volume restrictions. However, any changes to export taxes will need approval from congress.

Brazil’s Lula da Silva will skip Argentina’s newly elected President  Javier Milei’s inauguration in Buenos Aires, a sign that relations between the neighboring leaders are off to a rough start despite the Argentine’s efforts to tone down his aggressive campaign criticism.

The average trade estimate for Friday’s WASDE report has corn ending stocks at 2.153 billion bushels versus 2.156 billion in November. Soybean ending stocks pegged at 242 million bushels versus 245 million in November. Wheat ending stocks estimated at 684 million bushels, unchanged from November.

The average trade estimate for Friday’s WASDE has Brazilian soy production pegged at 160.1 MMTs versus 163.0 MMTs in November. Corn production is seen at 127.2 MMTs versus 129.0 MMTs last month.

On Thursday CONAB will release updated production estimates. In November CONAB pegged corn production at 119.06 MMTs,10 MMTs less than the USDA estimate. The second corn crop was seen at 91.2 MMTs. First corn production was estimated at 25.8 MMTs. Soybean production was seen at 162.4 MMTs.

Brazil forecast continues to show decent rains for center west and center south over the next two weeks. Northeast Brazil will see limited rains. Southern Brazil will continue to see frequent rains, keeping fields wet.

Argentina weather forecast remains favorable for crop seeding and development.

Have a great day!

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