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Grain Comments: 12-07-2023

Good morning.

Ag markets are mostly higher to start the day. CONAB released its monthly crop production estimate for December; reduced soybean crop estimates roughly 2 MMT vs Nov. Corn futures up 2-3 cents, holding support at the 10-day moving avg. Soybean futures up 7-10 cents, supported by the CONAB news. Chi wheat futures unchanged to up a penny, seeing follow through buying from China demand. Soy products are higher. The US dollar is down 20 points. Crude oil up $0.30/barrel. DOW futures are 50 points lower.

CONAB estimated Brazil 23-24 soybean crop @ 160.2 MMT vs. 162.4 MMT in Nov and 154.6 ly.

CONAB estimated Brazil 23-24 total corn crop @ 118.5 MMT vs. 119.0 in Nov and 131.9 ly.

US weekly export sales will be released this am trade looking for 725,000 to 1.5 mmt’s of corn; 1-1.8 mmt’s of soybeans and 250,000 to 800,000 mmt’s of wheat.

USDA will release their monthly supply and demand update tomorrow at 11am. Trade estimates 23-24 ending stocks for corn near 2.152 bil bu; ending stocks for soybeans near 0.243 bil bu; and ending stocks for wheat near 0.684 mil bu.

Trade estimates world ending stocks for corn near 313.44 mmt’s; soybean end stocks near 112.76 mmt’s; and wheat ending stocks near 258.86 mmt’s.

Trade continues to be cautious over current US corn exports with ideas that Brazil is about out of exportable supplies.

Chinese December soybean imports expected to be record high; Oct-Nov Chinese imports totaled 13.1 mmt’s and were up 13% yoy.

Brazil forecast continues to show improved chances at rainfall in the 6–10-day period. Totals in excess of 2″ are being shown by both the GFS and the EU model. Southern Brazil stays wet.

Argentina weather forecast remains favorable and a boost in soil moisture is anticipated towards the end of next week.

Have a great day!

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