Good morning.
Monday ag markets at the CBOT are mixed this morning coming out of the weekend, with the grain markets trading quietly in the green and the soy complex seeing additional chart-related selling pressure to start the new week. With the USDA’s December WASDE update on deck for Tuesday and there still being an ongoing dearth of fresh fundamental news otherwise, we would expect choppy trade to once again be the most probable outcome for the day today and most of the morning tomorrow as traders position for the numbers. Elsewhere, the markets will also likely see a bit of additional macro influence this week from the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, which will be had on Wednesday. Corn futures to get the week started this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are also quietly mixed to start – crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points and the US$ index is unchanged; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 80 points.
The CFTC on Friday released delayed commitment of traders data for the week ending October 28th; the report showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 71,479 contracts of corn (-89,506), buyers of 83,160 contracts of soybeans (+118,489) and buyers of 33,692 contracts of Chicago Wheat (-75,133). In soy products, funds were buyers of 49,256 contracts of meal (-45,751) and sellers of 1,887 contracts of oil (+1,555). Of note, this was the largest week of fund buying in soybeans since the week of May 7th, 2024. The next CFTC update, with data for the week ending November 4th, will be released on Tuesday.
For tomorrow’s WASDE update, traders see corn ending stocks coming in at 2.129 bil bu vs 2.154 last month, soybean ending stocks at 308 mil bu vs 290 mil last month, and wheat stocks at 889 mil bu vs 901 mil last month. At the world level, traders see corn stocks at 280.4 MMTs, soybean stocks at 122.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks at 273.0 MMTs. As a reminder, there will be no US production estimate updates made, but there will be global production updates, which would include South America. The report will be out at its regular 11am central time Tuesday morning.
Chinese customs data for the month of November showed soybean imports in the month at 8.107 MMTs, which would be down from the record 9.48 MMTs seen in October but still up more than 13% from the figure seen in the month last year and also the highest figure for the month since 2021. Cumulative 2025 imports through the first 11 months of the year now stand at 103.79 MMTs, which is up nearly 7% from last year.
Other weekend news regarding China this morning includes reports that talks on Friday between them and officials from the US regarding trade were “in-depth and constructive” and included discussions on implementing the “Busan arrangement”, which President’s Xi and Trump agreed to in South Korea. Sources familiar this morning are also indicating China’s Sinograin plans to auction 512,500 MTs of imported soybeans on December 11th, which would be the group’s first such sale in three months and comes just as newly booked US beans are set to begin arriving at ports.
Though they finished lower on Friday to end the week last week, B3 corn futures in Brazil saw a high-to-low rally the last couple weeks of more than 8%, trading from a low of 70.46 reals/sack on November 21st to a high of 76.18 reals/sack by the middle of last week. The price move is interesting amid mostly favorable weather conditions and expectations still at this point that production will likely be similar to last year. However, keep in mind that rains in April and May last year were a major contributing factor to high yields, and are not likely to repeat in the same way this year.
News out of the Black Sea region to start the week this morning includes some private crop forecast updates both for this year and next year, with private analyst SovEcon predicting Ukraine’s 2026 wheat production at 24.6 MMTs in its first estimate for the year, which would be up about 7% from the current season. Meanwhile, APK-Inform, another private outfit, said over the weekend that they were increasing their 2025 grain harvest estimate to 60.6 MMTs, which includes 23.2 MMTs of wheat and 30.5 MMTs of corn. Lastly and not production related, sources say Russian grain export duties will be set at 0 for the period of December 10-16.
The USDA’s ag baseline projections report, which is used for budgeting and gives crop outlooks for the next ten years, showed a roughly 4 million acre switch was possible from corn to soybeans next year in the US; the data showed corn acres falling from 98.7 to 95.0 million, while soybean acres were seen increasing from 81.1 to 85.0 million. For wheat, area is seen declining for a third straight year, going from 45.3 mil last year to 44.0 mil this year.
Ahead of the December FOMC policy meeting for the Federal Reserve, which is due to start tomorrow and run through Wednesday, the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning is holding steady in showing a roughly 90% chance that rates will come down another quarter-percent point later this week. The odds, which have seen significant fluctuations over the past several weeks on rumors that Kevin Hassett was Trump’s pick to be the next Fed Chair, illustrate the assumption that such a pick would provide a more dovish rate environment as opposed to what has been seen under current Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Midwest this week looks to continue seeing rather regular winter weather events, especially to the north and around the Great Lakes, as several low-pressure systems are seen working through the regions by the models this morning. The first looks to impact MN/WI/MI beginning later today and lasting through tomorrow as the storm moves east. Then as this system exits the region, another more potent low enters the same area near northwest MN on Tuesday night and looks to follow a similar track across the upper Midwest into Wednesday.
There is then model disagreement this morning on a third system for the area then towards the end of this week, with EU seeing one last more defined system for the area Thursday into Friday though the GFS has this event more scattered as it loses momentum. Precipitation-wise, the EU model this morning shows generally a half inch to an inch of moisture falling out of these systems between now and early Saturday morning, with the bulk of this coming in the form of snowfall that accumulates in a range of 2-6″ for most of the upper Midwest.
Weekend rains through Argentina begun showing up on Sunday largely as expected, though were maybe slightly further north than was seen originally. These rains are expected to then continue working north and east through the first part of the week this week into southern and south-central Brazil, which will be of great benefit to producers in these areas. Meanwhile, most of Argentina’s growing regions back to the south again look to see another week of drier weather for the most part, which should aid in planting activity. Temperature forecasts aren’t quite as hot this week for the area either, which is also beneficial.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-08-2025
Good morning.
Monday ag markets at the CBOT are mixed this morning coming out of the weekend, with the grain markets trading quietly in the green and the soy complex seeing additional chart-related selling pressure to start the new week. With the USDA’s December WASDE update on deck for Tuesday and there still being an ongoing dearth of fresh fundamental news otherwise, we would expect choppy trade to once again be the most probable outcome for the day today and most of the morning tomorrow as traders position for the numbers. Elsewhere, the markets will also likely see a bit of additional macro influence this week from the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, which will be had on Wednesday. Corn futures to get the week started this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are also quietly mixed to start – crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points and the US$ index is unchanged; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 80 points.
The CFTC on Friday released delayed commitment of traders data for the week ending October 28th; the report showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 71,479 contracts of corn (-89,506), buyers of 83,160 contracts of soybeans (+118,489) and buyers of 33,692 contracts of Chicago Wheat (-75,133). In soy products, funds were buyers of 49,256 contracts of meal (-45,751) and sellers of 1,887 contracts of oil (+1,555). Of note, this was the largest week of fund buying in soybeans since the week of May 7th, 2024. The next CFTC update, with data for the week ending November 4th, will be released on Tuesday.
For tomorrow’s WASDE update, traders see corn ending stocks coming in at 2.129 bil bu vs 2.154 last month, soybean ending stocks at 308 mil bu vs 290 mil last month, and wheat stocks at 889 mil bu vs 901 mil last month. At the world level, traders see corn stocks at 280.4 MMTs, soybean stocks at 122.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks at 273.0 MMTs. As a reminder, there will be no US production estimate updates made, but there will be global production updates, which would include South America. The report will be out at its regular 11am central time Tuesday morning.
Chinese customs data for the month of November showed soybean imports in the month at 8.107 MMTs, which would be down from the record 9.48 MMTs seen in October but still up more than 13% from the figure seen in the month last year and also the highest figure for the month since 2021. Cumulative 2025 imports through the first 11 months of the year now stand at 103.79 MMTs, which is up nearly 7% from last year.
Other weekend news regarding China this morning includes reports that talks on Friday between them and officials from the US regarding trade were “in-depth and constructive” and included discussions on implementing the “Busan arrangement”, which President’s Xi and Trump agreed to in South Korea. Sources familiar this morning are also indicating China’s Sinograin plans to auction 512,500 MTs of imported soybeans on December 11th, which would be the group’s first such sale in three months and comes just as newly booked US beans are set to begin arriving at ports.
Though they finished lower on Friday to end the week last week, B3 corn futures in Brazil saw a high-to-low rally the last couple weeks of more than 8%, trading from a low of 70.46 reals/sack on November 21st to a high of 76.18 reals/sack by the middle of last week. The price move is interesting amid mostly favorable weather conditions and expectations still at this point that production will likely be similar to last year. However, keep in mind that rains in April and May last year were a major contributing factor to high yields, and are not likely to repeat in the same way this year.
News out of the Black Sea region to start the week this morning includes some private crop forecast updates both for this year and next year, with private analyst SovEcon predicting Ukraine’s 2026 wheat production at 24.6 MMTs in its first estimate for the year, which would be up about 7% from the current season. Meanwhile, APK-Inform, another private outfit, said over the weekend that they were increasing their 2025 grain harvest estimate to 60.6 MMTs, which includes 23.2 MMTs of wheat and 30.5 MMTs of corn. Lastly and not production related, sources say Russian grain export duties will be set at 0 for the period of December 10-16.
The USDA’s ag baseline projections report, which is used for budgeting and gives crop outlooks for the next ten years, showed a roughly 4 million acre switch was possible from corn to soybeans next year in the US; the data showed corn acres falling from 98.7 to 95.0 million, while soybean acres were seen increasing from 81.1 to 85.0 million. For wheat, area is seen declining for a third straight year, going from 45.3 mil last year to 44.0 mil this year.
Ahead of the December FOMC policy meeting for the Federal Reserve, which is due to start tomorrow and run through Wednesday, the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning is holding steady in showing a roughly 90% chance that rates will come down another quarter-percent point later this week. The odds, which have seen significant fluctuations over the past several weeks on rumors that Kevin Hassett was Trump’s pick to be the next Fed Chair, illustrate the assumption that such a pick would provide a more dovish rate environment as opposed to what has been seen under current Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Midwest this week looks to continue seeing rather regular winter weather events, especially to the north and around the Great Lakes, as several low-pressure systems are seen working through the regions by the models this morning. The first looks to impact MN/WI/MI beginning later today and lasting through tomorrow as the storm moves east. Then as this system exits the region, another more potent low enters the same area near northwest MN on Tuesday night and looks to follow a similar track across the upper Midwest into Wednesday.
There is then model disagreement this morning on a third system for the area then towards the end of this week, with EU seeing one last more defined system for the area Thursday into Friday though the GFS has this event more scattered as it loses momentum. Precipitation-wise, the EU model this morning shows generally a half inch to an inch of moisture falling out of these systems between now and early Saturday morning, with the bulk of this coming in the form of snowfall that accumulates in a range of 2-6″ for most of the upper Midwest.
Weekend rains through Argentina begun showing up on Sunday largely as expected, though were maybe slightly further north than was seen originally. These rains are expected to then continue working north and east through the first part of the week this week into southern and south-central Brazil, which will be of great benefit to producers in these areas. Meanwhile, most of Argentina’s growing regions back to the south again look to see another week of drier weather for the most part, which should aid in planting activity. Temperature forecasts aren’t quite as hot this week for the area either, which is also beneficial.
Have a great day.
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