Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start December WASDE day at the CBOT, with the grain markets higher and the soy complex mixed/lower through the overnight hours as traders anxiously await the next round of USDA data that could alter the balance sheets and price outlooks for corn and soybeans. With there not expected to be any US production updates in this morning’s update we don’t necessarily expect a ton of excitement or shock, but would add that it’s usually a fool’s errand to try and outguess what is going to be seen on these reports; even more so with there still presumably being some measure of catch-up going on from the shut-down. Should it occur, it wouldn’t be the first time the government has given traders and farmers an offseason curveball, which would lead us to again preach risk management going into the day. Corn futures to start report day are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mostly lower; soybean meal is down $3-4/ton and soybean oil is trading 10-20 points lower. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged also.
For this morning’s WASDE update, traders see corn ending stocks coming in at 2.129 bil bu vs 2.154 last month, soybean ending stocks at 308 mil bu vs 290 mil last month, and wheat stocks at 889 mil bu vs 901 mil last month. At the world level, traders see corn stocks at 280.4 MMTs, soybean stocks at 122.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks at 273.0 MMTs. As a reminder, there will be no US production estimate updates made, but there will be global production updates, which would include South America. The report will be out at its regular 11am central time.
CONAB’s weekly crop progress update, released yesterday evening, showed soybean planting pace across Brazil at 90.3% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 94.1% on a similar day last year and 89.8% on average. First crop corn planting was estimated at 71.3% complete vs 72.2% last year and 69.1% average, while wheat harvest was seen at 98% complete vs 98.9% last year and 97.8% average. CONAB will release monthly crop data on Thursday morning.
Private group AgRural showed similar planting progress figures to what CONAB did in their weekly update but also added in their first production update of the season that they see Brazil corn production in 2025/26 reaching just 135.3 MMTs, which would be down more than 4% from last year. The group said in a comment that that farmers in RGDS in southern Brazil are already fearing yield loss due to hot and dry weather. They left their soybean production forecast unchanged at 178.5 MMTs.
President Trump on Monday, while announcing a new round of farmer aid at the White House, said he was considering possibly implementing additional tariffs on rice imports from India and other countries and fertilizer from Canada as a way to bolster domestic prices of these products. Trump said the fertilizer being imported could be produced domestically, but it would seem that new duties on imports from Canada, who supplies roughly 90% of the potash used in the US, would only lead to a further increase in input costs in the short term.
To the farmer aid that was announced, Trump, along with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, said on Monday that that the administration had approved $11 billion in payments to go out to farmers by the end of February, while there was an additional $1 billion that was earmarked for producers of specialty crops that aren’t covered under other programs. Rollins said the money would come from the CCC and would be offset in part by revenue brought in from tariffs.
Reuters reported on Monday that the Argentine government was planning to privatize its aging rail network in an effort to boost and modernize grain and mining exports from the country. Sources familiar with the matter say the project could cost upwards of $800 million and added that the volume of cargo transported by train in Argentina was less than that in 1970 despite ag production increasing by nearly 6-fold in the same period. It is thought that the improvements would significantly lower costs in getting grain from the country’s growing regions in the north to its export ports, where costs are currently higher than getting product from the port to other countries.
Additionally, Reuters also reported early this morning that Argentina’s Economy Minister had announced overnight that the administration was again going to lower export taxes on grains, with soybeans going from 26% to 24% and products going from 24.5% to 22.5%; wheat taxes are said to be going from 9.5% to 7.5%, while corn taxes are expected to go from 9.5% to 8.5%. It is unclear how long those cuts are expected to run for.
President Trump also said on Monday that Mexico was in violation of the US-Mexico water treaty, stating that the country still owed the US more than 800,000 acre-feet of water accumulated over the past five years, and that 200,000 of this must be released before December 31st to avoid a 5% tariff on Mexican goods.
We won’t spend a lot of time this morning on forecast news for the Midwest, as models are similar to what was seen on Monday. In South America meanwhile, also not a lot of change here from Monday but models still see improving rainfall through southern Brazil over the next couple days, with totals possibly reaching upwards of 6+” in some areas. Additional possibly heavy rainfall is then expected for these same areas again the end of the week as well. As has been the case most of the fall and early winter, there just isn’t anything overly threatening in the forecast today that would cause traders to get excited.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-09-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start December WASDE day at the CBOT, with the grain markets higher and the soy complex mixed/lower through the overnight hours as traders anxiously await the next round of USDA data that could alter the balance sheets and price outlooks for corn and soybeans. With there not expected to be any US production updates in this morning’s update we don’t necessarily expect a ton of excitement or shock, but would add that it’s usually a fool’s errand to try and outguess what is going to be seen on these reports; even more so with there still presumably being some measure of catch-up going on from the shut-down. Should it occur, it wouldn’t be the first time the government has given traders and farmers an offseason curveball, which would lead us to again preach risk management going into the day. Corn futures to start report day are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mostly lower; soybean meal is down $3-4/ton and soybean oil is trading 10-20 points lower. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged also.
For this morning’s WASDE update, traders see corn ending stocks coming in at 2.129 bil bu vs 2.154 last month, soybean ending stocks at 308 mil bu vs 290 mil last month, and wheat stocks at 889 mil bu vs 901 mil last month. At the world level, traders see corn stocks at 280.4 MMTs, soybean stocks at 122.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks at 273.0 MMTs. As a reminder, there will be no US production estimate updates made, but there will be global production updates, which would include South America. The report will be out at its regular 11am central time.
CONAB’s weekly crop progress update, released yesterday evening, showed soybean planting pace across Brazil at 90.3% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 94.1% on a similar day last year and 89.8% on average. First crop corn planting was estimated at 71.3% complete vs 72.2% last year and 69.1% average, while wheat harvest was seen at 98% complete vs 98.9% last year and 97.8% average. CONAB will release monthly crop data on Thursday morning.
Private group AgRural showed similar planting progress figures to what CONAB did in their weekly update but also added in their first production update of the season that they see Brazil corn production in 2025/26 reaching just 135.3 MMTs, which would be down more than 4% from last year. The group said in a comment that that farmers in RGDS in southern Brazil are already fearing yield loss due to hot and dry weather. They left their soybean production forecast unchanged at 178.5 MMTs.
President Trump on Monday, while announcing a new round of farmer aid at the White House, said he was considering possibly implementing additional tariffs on rice imports from India and other countries and fertilizer from Canada as a way to bolster domestic prices of these products. Trump said the fertilizer being imported could be produced domestically, but it would seem that new duties on imports from Canada, who supplies roughly 90% of the potash used in the US, would only lead to a further increase in input costs in the short term.
To the farmer aid that was announced, Trump, along with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, said on Monday that that the administration had approved $11 billion in payments to go out to farmers by the end of February, while there was an additional $1 billion that was earmarked for producers of specialty crops that aren’t covered under other programs. Rollins said the money would come from the CCC and would be offset in part by revenue brought in from tariffs.
Reuters reported on Monday that the Argentine government was planning to privatize its aging rail network in an effort to boost and modernize grain and mining exports from the country. Sources familiar with the matter say the project could cost upwards of $800 million and added that the volume of cargo transported by train in Argentina was less than that in 1970 despite ag production increasing by nearly 6-fold in the same period. It is thought that the improvements would significantly lower costs in getting grain from the country’s growing regions in the north to its export ports, where costs are currently higher than getting product from the port to other countries.
Additionally, Reuters also reported early this morning that Argentina’s Economy Minister had announced overnight that the administration was again going to lower export taxes on grains, with soybeans going from 26% to 24% and products going from 24.5% to 22.5%; wheat taxes are said to be going from 9.5% to 7.5%, while corn taxes are expected to go from 9.5% to 8.5%. It is unclear how long those cuts are expected to run for.
President Trump also said on Monday that Mexico was in violation of the US-Mexico water treaty, stating that the country still owed the US more than 800,000 acre-feet of water accumulated over the past five years, and that 200,000 of this must be released before December 31st to avoid a 5% tariff on Mexican goods.
We won’t spend a lot of time this morning on forecast news for the Midwest, as models are similar to what was seen on Monday. In South America meanwhile, also not a lot of change here from Monday but models still see improving rainfall through southern Brazil over the next couple days, with totals possibly reaching upwards of 6+” in some areas. Additional possibly heavy rainfall is then expected for these same areas again the end of the week as well. As has been the case most of the fall and early winter, there just isn’t anything overly threatening in the forecast today that would cause traders to get excited.
Have a great day.
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