Good morning.
Outside markets are seeing some turn-around-Wednesday action to start the day this morning, with buying seen across most of the equity and energy markets following lower closes across the board on Tuesday. The rebound has, for the most part, been unable to enter the ag space though, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat again near unchanged and in light volume, much like has been the case to start the previous two sessions. Yesterday’s downward move in the ag’s left corn and soybean futures pretty much right on major chart-based support levels, which makes these areas important for today’s session; should they hold, a small corrective bounce could unfold the next couple days amid what have become oversold conditions technically, but if they don’t, it likely becomes look out below with corn having room to quickly run another 10-15 cents, while the beans could fall back to the lower $10 range without much trouble. To start Wednesday morning, corn futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are again mixed; soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down around 30 points. Outside markets are mostly in the green, crude oil futures are up $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 80 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending December 12th between 1.085-1.120 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.00-22.60 mil bbls. The report will be out at its regular 9:30am central time.
Trade data released from the European Commission showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year through December 14th at 10.5 MMTs, which compares to about 10.8 MMTs through a similar period last year. Barley exports are seen up 135% on the year at 5 MMTs, while corn imports are down 20% on the year at 7.5 MMTs.
A Ukrainian farmers union said on Wednesday that the country’s wheat exports had seen a decline over the past month as Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and energy facilities, adding that some facilities were operating at just 20% of capacity. In a weekly report, the group said wheat exports totaled around 359,150 MTs through the first half of December out of 1 million total tons contracted for the month. Data from the Economy Ministry shows total wheat exports in the current season at just 7.5 MMTs, which is down nearly 2 MMTs from the same period last year despite a bigger crop size.
Touched on this briefly yesterday, but one of Argentina’s main oilseed workers’ unions said on Tuesday it was planning a 24-hour strike for next Thursday, as it would be joining in nationwide protests against new labor reforms recently introduced by President Javier Milie. “The government sent a labor reform bill aimed at strengthening employers’ position and weakening that of workers,” the union said in a statement.
According to the White House, President Trump is scheduled to address the nation later this evening at 8pm central time. It is unclear exactly what the President will cover in his remarks, but sources assume there will be some mention of progress on the war in Ukraine, as well as comments on policy priorities for 2026 and what may be ahead as far as economic, trade and energy policies are concerned.
Other Trump-related news for this morning includes headlines that the President has ordered a blockade targeting sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, likely causing the pop in oil futures this morning. What physical impact the move has will be seen in the coming days/weeks, but the announcement seemingly adds geopolitical risk to a situation that has already been escalating in recent weeks, with Trump also designating President Maduro’s administration as a terrorist organization.
On the weather front for Wednesday, models continue to see expanding precipitation through the northwestern US today, as the low-pressure system that will provide Midwest precipitation the end of the week enters the US and works south and east over the next few days. Rainfall totals through the Corn Belt are estimated in a range of a tenth to 3/4 of an inch or so, with the heaviest totals seen up the East Coast through the end of the day on Friday. The weekend then looks to be mostly warm and dry for most of the area, with the next round of precipitation not expected until maybe the middle of next week.
Models are still seeing expanding precipitation for Argentina beginning this weekend, with the rains then expected to work north into southern Brazil by the first part of next week. Totals across the Argy crop regions look to range from a half inch to an inch generally, with heavier totals expected further to the north. A pocket in northern Argentina/Paraguay/southwest Brazil will see a heavier 4-6″, but it will be important to see how much of the growing regions in Brazil catch these heavier moisture totals.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-17-2025
Good morning.
Outside markets are seeing some turn-around-Wednesday action to start the day this morning, with buying seen across most of the equity and energy markets following lower closes across the board on Tuesday. The rebound has, for the most part, been unable to enter the ag space though, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat again near unchanged and in light volume, much like has been the case to start the previous two sessions. Yesterday’s downward move in the ag’s left corn and soybean futures pretty much right on major chart-based support levels, which makes these areas important for today’s session; should they hold, a small corrective bounce could unfold the next couple days amid what have become oversold conditions technically, but if they don’t, it likely becomes look out below with corn having room to quickly run another 10-15 cents, while the beans could fall back to the lower $10 range without much trouble. To start Wednesday morning, corn futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are again mixed; soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down around 30 points. Outside markets are mostly in the green, crude oil futures are up $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 80 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending December 12th between 1.085-1.120 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.00-22.60 mil bbls. The report will be out at its regular 9:30am central time.
Trade data released from the European Commission showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year through December 14th at 10.5 MMTs, which compares to about 10.8 MMTs through a similar period last year. Barley exports are seen up 135% on the year at 5 MMTs, while corn imports are down 20% on the year at 7.5 MMTs.
A Ukrainian farmers union said on Wednesday that the country’s wheat exports had seen a decline over the past month as Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and energy facilities, adding that some facilities were operating at just 20% of capacity. In a weekly report, the group said wheat exports totaled around 359,150 MTs through the first half of December out of 1 million total tons contracted for the month. Data from the Economy Ministry shows total wheat exports in the current season at just 7.5 MMTs, which is down nearly 2 MMTs from the same period last year despite a bigger crop size.
Touched on this briefly yesterday, but one of Argentina’s main oilseed workers’ unions said on Tuesday it was planning a 24-hour strike for next Thursday, as it would be joining in nationwide protests against new labor reforms recently introduced by President Javier Milie. “The government sent a labor reform bill aimed at strengthening employers’ position and weakening that of workers,” the union said in a statement.
According to the White House, President Trump is scheduled to address the nation later this evening at 8pm central time. It is unclear exactly what the President will cover in his remarks, but sources assume there will be some mention of progress on the war in Ukraine, as well as comments on policy priorities for 2026 and what may be ahead as far as economic, trade and energy policies are concerned.
Other Trump-related news for this morning includes headlines that the President has ordered a blockade targeting sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, likely causing the pop in oil futures this morning. What physical impact the move has will be seen in the coming days/weeks, but the announcement seemingly adds geopolitical risk to a situation that has already been escalating in recent weeks, with Trump also designating President Maduro’s administration as a terrorist organization.
On the weather front for Wednesday, models continue to see expanding precipitation through the northwestern US today, as the low-pressure system that will provide Midwest precipitation the end of the week enters the US and works south and east over the next few days. Rainfall totals through the Corn Belt are estimated in a range of a tenth to 3/4 of an inch or so, with the heaviest totals seen up the East Coast through the end of the day on Friday. The weekend then looks to be mostly warm and dry for most of the area, with the next round of precipitation not expected until maybe the middle of next week.
Models are still seeing expanding precipitation for Argentina beginning this weekend, with the rains then expected to work north into southern Brazil by the first part of next week. Totals across the Argy crop regions look to range from a half inch to an inch generally, with heavier totals expected further to the north. A pocket in northern Argentina/Paraguay/southwest Brazil will see a heavier 4-6″, but it will be important to see how much of the growing regions in Brazil catch these heavier moisture totals.
Have a great day.
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