Good morning.
CBOT ag trade is once again quiet and choppy this morning, as low volume and small trading ranges continue to dominate market sentiment with just one week to go on the calendar before the Christmas holiday. Cron futures are 1-2 cents higher, while the soybean and wheat markets are unchanged to slightly lower and the product markets are mixed.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with delayed data for the week ending November 27th, is expected to show corn sales for the week between 1.0-2.0 MMTs, soybean sales between 600k-2.0 MMTs, and wheat sales between 250k-600k MTs. The report will be out at its regular 7:30am central time.
The CFTC on Wednesday released another round of delayed commitment of traders data for the week ending December 2nd; the report showed funds in the week were buyers of 34,143 contracts of corn (+23,270), buyers of 1,137 contracts of soybeans (+215,426), and buyers of 9,905 contracts of Chicago wheat (-43,841); in soy products, funds were sellers of 5,847 contracts of soybean meal (+57,662) and buyers of (16,113 contracts of oil (-2,684). The next report will be released tomorrow (Friday).
Additional customs data from China released on Wednesday showed the country’s corn imports in November at 560,000 MTs, which was up nearly 90% from the same month last year; cumulative imports though now stand at just 1.85 MMTs, which is down 86% from last year. Wheat imports on the month were up 279% from last year at 250,000 MTs.
Sources familiar with the matter said several cargoes of soybean oil from Argentina that were bound for India, the world’s number one importer of the product, had been canceled or delayed as local prices have dropped below those on the international market. The sources say the total volume was in the ballpark of around 100,000 tons, which would be about 1/5 of the country’s average monthly imports, and added that if the price disparity continues, there would likely be additional shipments washed out.
In a pre-holiday address to the US on Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump offered little in the way of policy updates or outlooks going into the New Year, instead using the platform mostly to continue piling criticism on the previous administration. Trump began the address by saying, “Good evening, America. Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess, and I’m fixing it.” The speech had little effect on equity markets, which are mostly marginally higher this morning.
A weakening La Niña over the next couple weeks is expected to keep the overall pattern in the southern half of Argentina on the drier side of normal, while areas in the central and northern parts of the country, where rains are still expected this weekend, will continue seeing regular rainfall. A lack of any extreme heat paired with adequate soil moisture levels due to excessive rains in September and October will limit stress at least into the first of the year, but a return of moisture will be desired by some point in January if current dryness persists.
For Brazil, there continues to be longer term forecast concerns over dryness in pockets in the country’s southeast and south-central areas, while heat is also expected to increase here in the coming weeks. However, areas in the far south will see almost the opposite problem, as ongoing heavy rainfall could lead to excessive moisture and possibly some localized flooding issues in these areas.
US weather for the Midwest features a low pressure system working through the area today and tonight, before it exits the East Coast later Friday night and into Saturday; models see this system providing anywhere from a few tenths further to the west to a half inch to an inch further to the east of rainfall over the next 48 hours. Snowfall will be limited to areas north of I-80 generally, with totals on the US side of the border generally less than an inch; heavier snows will be seen north of the border in Canada.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-18-2025
Good morning.
CBOT ag trade is once again quiet and choppy this morning, as low volume and small trading ranges continue to dominate market sentiment with just one week to go on the calendar before the Christmas holiday. Cron futures are 1-2 cents higher, while the soybean and wheat markets are unchanged to slightly lower and the product markets are mixed.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with delayed data for the week ending November 27th, is expected to show corn sales for the week between 1.0-2.0 MMTs, soybean sales between 600k-2.0 MMTs, and wheat sales between 250k-600k MTs. The report will be out at its regular 7:30am central time.
The CFTC on Wednesday released another round of delayed commitment of traders data for the week ending December 2nd; the report showed funds in the week were buyers of 34,143 contracts of corn (+23,270), buyers of 1,137 contracts of soybeans (+215,426), and buyers of 9,905 contracts of Chicago wheat (-43,841); in soy products, funds were sellers of 5,847 contracts of soybean meal (+57,662) and buyers of (16,113 contracts of oil (-2,684). The next report will be released tomorrow (Friday).
Additional customs data from China released on Wednesday showed the country’s corn imports in November at 560,000 MTs, which was up nearly 90% from the same month last year; cumulative imports though now stand at just 1.85 MMTs, which is down 86% from last year. Wheat imports on the month were up 279% from last year at 250,000 MTs.
Sources familiar with the matter said several cargoes of soybean oil from Argentina that were bound for India, the world’s number one importer of the product, had been canceled or delayed as local prices have dropped below those on the international market. The sources say the total volume was in the ballpark of around 100,000 tons, which would be about 1/5 of the country’s average monthly imports, and added that if the price disparity continues, there would likely be additional shipments washed out.
In a pre-holiday address to the US on Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump offered little in the way of policy updates or outlooks going into the New Year, instead using the platform mostly to continue piling criticism on the previous administration. Trump began the address by saying, “Good evening, America. Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess, and I’m fixing it.” The speech had little effect on equity markets, which are mostly marginally higher this morning.
A weakening La Niña over the next couple weeks is expected to keep the overall pattern in the southern half of Argentina on the drier side of normal, while areas in the central and northern parts of the country, where rains are still expected this weekend, will continue seeing regular rainfall. A lack of any extreme heat paired with adequate soil moisture levels due to excessive rains in September and October will limit stress at least into the first of the year, but a return of moisture will be desired by some point in January if current dryness persists.
For Brazil, there continues to be longer term forecast concerns over dryness in pockets in the country’s southeast and south-central areas, while heat is also expected to increase here in the coming weeks. However, areas in the far south will see almost the opposite problem, as ongoing heavy rainfall could lead to excessive moisture and possibly some localized flooding issues in these areas.
US weather for the Midwest features a low pressure system working through the area today and tonight, before it exits the East Coast later Friday night and into Saturday; models see this system providing anywhere from a few tenths further to the west to a half inch to an inch further to the east of rainfall over the next 48 hours. Snowfall will be limited to areas north of I-80 generally, with totals on the US side of the border generally less than an inch; heavier snows will be seen north of the border in Canada.
Have a great day.
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