Good morning.
Markets are higher to start the first full trading week in October, with the soy complex generally leading the way but the wheat market is not far behind though there seems to be little news of note actually driving the higher trade to get Monday started. Outside of an uptick in harvest activity spurred by a drier shift in the weather pattern out west, weekend news largely focused again on developments in the Black Sea region and in the Middle East, of which there were few. With the USDA’s October WASDE update scheduled for Friday, we would imagine price action throughout the first part of the week stays on the choppier side, with traders wanting to know if the government’s opinion on crop sizes has changed much over the last four weeks.
Corn futures to start Monday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 9-11 cents higher.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending September 29th were sellers of 36,587 contracts of corn (+377,850), sellers of 24,017 contracts of soybeans (+241,024), and sellers of 8,525 contracts of Chicago wheat (-21,670); in the products, funds bought 15,047 contracts of meal (+207,416) and sold 8,746 contracts of oil (+87,875). This is another new record long position in the meal.
Sources familiar with the situation said over the weekend that Russia had struck a Liberian-flagged cargo vessel in one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, killing one and injuring others in the attack. Russia also struck additional industrial and port infrastructure in the Odesa region according to its governor.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry shows grain exports in the current season started July 1 at 5.36 MMTs, which is roughly what Ukraine would normally export in a single month and is down some 26% from the same period last year. September grain exports totaled just 960k tons according to the data.
The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization said last week that world food prices during the month of September had risen to their highest level in more than four years as logistics disruptions and weather concerns affected crop markets. The group’s Food Price Index averaged 136 points during the month, up from 134 in August and the highest reading since November of 2022.
Touched on this late last week, but the G7 on Friday announced plans to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and also pledged to avoid energy export restrictions following pressure from the US. In comments, President Trump also said the US would soon begin refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though no additional details were given.
Though not necessarily a market mover, one of the bigger headline stories out of the weekend came from Brazil, where early election results show Flavio Bolsonaro taking a slight lead over President Lula da Silva. A runoff vote is now scheduled for October 25th, as neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold. As a refresher, Flavio is the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is now in prison for allegedly plotting a coup.
The Midwest weather pattern looks to see a notable shift this week, with the cool/wet conditions seen across a lot of the region last week giving way to warmer/drier weather for the next several days as high pressure ridging sets up over the heart of the US. The models have been in good agreement over the pattern for days now, which is giving us confidence in the solution.
The short-term question going forward from here is how long this pattern shifts last for, with the models beginning to show differences in the end of the forecast period as the pattern stays progressive into the end of the month. New to the forecast this week is a fairly sizeable low-pressure trough being sent across the mid-section of the country October 13/14/15 that could provide the next round of Midwest moisture, but we’ll need to watch how this pattern develops over the next week or so. Though it’s too far out to mean much, the model does have ridging setting back up in the eastern US after that system passes.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-05-2026
Good morning.
Markets are higher to start the first full trading week in October, with the soy complex generally leading the way but the wheat market is not far behind though there seems to be little news of note actually driving the higher trade to get Monday started. Outside of an uptick in harvest activity spurred by a drier shift in the weather pattern out west, weekend news largely focused again on developments in the Black Sea region and in the Middle East, of which there were few. With the USDA’s October WASDE update scheduled for Friday, we would imagine price action throughout the first part of the week stays on the choppier side, with traders wanting to know if the government’s opinion on crop sizes has changed much over the last four weeks.
Corn futures to start Monday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 9-11 cents higher.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending September 29th were sellers of 36,587 contracts of corn (+377,850), sellers of 24,017 contracts of soybeans (+241,024), and sellers of 8,525 contracts of Chicago wheat (-21,670); in the products, funds bought 15,047 contracts of meal (+207,416) and sold 8,746 contracts of oil (+87,875). This is another new record long position in the meal.
Sources familiar with the situation said over the weekend that Russia had struck a Liberian-flagged cargo vessel in one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, killing one and injuring others in the attack. Russia also struck additional industrial and port infrastructure in the Odesa region according to its governor.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry shows grain exports in the current season started July 1 at 5.36 MMTs, which is roughly what Ukraine would normally export in a single month and is down some 26% from the same period last year. September grain exports totaled just 960k tons according to the data.
The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization said last week that world food prices during the month of September had risen to their highest level in more than four years as logistics disruptions and weather concerns affected crop markets. The group’s Food Price Index averaged 136 points during the month, up from 134 in August and the highest reading since November of 2022.
Touched on this late last week, but the G7 on Friday announced plans to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and also pledged to avoid energy export restrictions following pressure from the US. In comments, President Trump also said the US would soon begin refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though no additional details were given.
Though not necessarily a market mover, one of the bigger headline stories out of the weekend came from Brazil, where early election results show Flavio Bolsonaro taking a slight lead over President Lula da Silva. A runoff vote is now scheduled for October 25th, as neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold. As a refresher, Flavio is the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is now in prison for allegedly plotting a coup.
The Midwest weather pattern looks to see a notable shift this week, with the cool/wet conditions seen across a lot of the region last week giving way to warmer/drier weather for the next several days as high pressure ridging sets up over the heart of the US. The models have been in good agreement over the pattern for days now, which is giving us confidence in the solution.
The short-term question going forward from here is how long this pattern shifts last for, with the models beginning to show differences in the end of the forecast period as the pattern stays progressive into the end of the month. New to the forecast this week is a fairly sizeable low-pressure trough being sent across the mid-section of the country October 13/14/15 that could provide the next round of Midwest moisture, but we’ll need to watch how this pattern develops over the next week or so. Though it’s too far out to mean much, the model does have ridging setting back up in the eastern US after that system passes.
Have a great day.
View All News >