Good morning. Ag markets are quietly lower to start Wednesday trade in Chicago, with the beans and bean oil the downside leaders on what has been another quiet night of news for the most part. Trader focus continues to be centered on the Middle East, and to a lesser degree, China, which has caused volatility and market choppiness to remain elevated as it appears the Trump-Xi meeting is now officially on hold. In our opinion, downside risks continue to outweigh those to the upside, as we assume an end to the war in Iran or a total cancelation of the meeting in Beijing would lead to another quick, sharp fall in CBOT ag values. Corn futures to start mid-week trade are 1-2 cents lower this morning, soybean futures are 3-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents lower.
📅 Today’s Reports: Monthly PPI; EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; Fed Interest Rate Decision
- This morning’s weekly EIA ethanol report is expected to show average US daily production in the week ending March 13th between 1.086-1.150 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 24.60-26.38 mil bbls. The report is due out at its regular 9:30am central release time.
- Brazilian Ag Minister Carlos Favaro on Tuesday denied previous reports that he had eased new export restrictions in recent days, but added that the government would be negotiating soybean inspection and safety requirements directly with China following complaints from Beijing after several cargoes showed the presence of weed seed. A Brazilian delegation is expected to travel to China next week to propose new sanitary protocols.
- A Ukrainian farmers union said on Monday that farmers in the country’s south have planted around 50,000 hectares of spring cereals, marking the start of the 2026 seeding campaign that has been delayed by some 10-15 days in areas due to frosts and frozen soils. Ukraine has not yet announced total planted area estimates for the coming season.
- Industry group Coceral on Tuesday said they now see total grain harvest in the EU and the UK at 298.8 MMTs, up a little over 2 MMTs from a previous forecast but still down roughly 2 MMTs from the total seen last year. The group said corn production was expected to be up following drought conditions in a lot of regions last year, but added that this would be offset by falls in wheat, barely, and rapeseed production.
- Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans said this week that Russian wheat exports in the month of March could total 4.3-4.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be the second highest monthly figure ever, and would be well above the five-year average for the month of around 2.9 MMTs. Data shows exports through the first half of the month at 2.1 MMTs, which is almost the entire total shipped for the month last year.
- In oil news this morning that’s somewhat unrelated to the Middle East, sources familiar reported that the US was moving to ease restrictions on Venezuelan oil in an effort to boost global supplies. Headlines also have Chinese state-owned oil buyers resuming Russian purchases in recent days following a US-issued sanctions waiver, also signaling a further desire to reopen trade flows in some way.
